Should You Bet on First and Anytime Touchdown Props for Super Bowl LVI? (Archive)
The rising popularity of fantasy football has led to a proliferation of information on not just the team’s success, but the individual players. With this in mind, today we can tackle a very fun market. That of the first touchdown and anytime touchdown scorer. It’s not just betting the side and totals, these props can also find us an edge when looking for winning NFL picks.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, February 13, 2022 – 06:30 PM EST at SoFi Stadium
First Touchdown Scorer
The first touchdown scorer market has become very popular over the last 3-4 years. Not only is it a fun market, but it also allows bettors who are able to analyze individual matchups to capitalize on trends within a team's offense or defense. Some people may chalk these bets up to luck, but after one studies these markets for a while, one can figure out how to find an edge.
One of the first metrics we can use is the red-zone target percentage. Of course, if we are looking at red-zone (plays within the opposing team 20-yard line or less) target percentages we are taking out big plays or special teams out of the equation. Yet still, we can use red-zone target percentages to find the players in which we want to back. These metrics will be helpful for the first touchdown and the anytime touchdown prop.
Let's take a look at the Los Angeles Rams. In what is no surprise, WR Cooper Kupp leads the team with a red-zone target percentage of 32.73%. Kupp was targeted 36 times for 25 completions. That is a 69.44% completion percentage and led to 12 touchdowns. Of course, Cooper Kupp has the lowest NFL odds for the first and anytime touchdown scorer. This isn't a surprise because the data completely correlates with that. I'm not saying you can't bet on Cooper Kupp, especially if he is your favorite player, but we will look elsewhere to try and find more value.
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I like targeting quarterbacks and tight ends. Quarterbacks have the ball on every play and in high-leverage situations such as a playoff game or Super Bowl, quarterbacks are more likely to risk their bodies in order to make the big play. Tight ends are big red-zone targets as well. So for the Super Bowl first touchdown market, I'm going to eschew the bigger names and try and bet the long shots.
On the Bengals side, I like two names. I like QB Joe Burrow and TE CJ Uzomah. Joe Burrow comes in at +2800. Much will be made of the weakness of the Cincinnati offensive line this week, and Joe Burrow will have plenty of opportunities to scramble under pressure. If the strong Rams secondary is able to keep their coverage, Joe Burrow will no doubt scramble towards the end zone. At +2800 Joe Burrow represent excellent value for the first touchdown scorer.
NFL Pick: Joe Burrow first touchdown scorer (+2800) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
TE CJ Uzomah is the other one we will target. Uzomah is a big body in the red zone. We know that Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will get plenty of attention. This should leave Uzomah in a favorable matchup that he can take advantage of. At +1600, CJ Uzomah is a great bet for the first touchdown scorer.
NFL Pick: CJ Uzomah first touchdown scorer (+1600) at BetOnline
On the Rams side, I like TE Tyler Higbee at +1400. We talked about Cooper Kupp's excellent red-zone target numbers, but Tyler Higbee is exceptionally high as well at 15.45%. Higbee has the highest completion percentage in the red zone at 70.59%. He has had 17 red-zone targets this season with puts him right behind WR Van Jefferson. Tyler Higbee definitely represents the best value on the Los Angeles Rams side at +1400.
NFL Pick: Tyler Higbee first touchdown scorer (+1400) at BetOnline
Anytime Touchdown
I like to go a little more chalky here because we do have the ability to get it done all game. While the first touchdown can be somewhat high variance, Anytime Touchdown is a much safer market to play at the lower odds. One Bengal I like to get in the end zone for sure is WR Ja'Marr Chase. Ja'Marr Chase is the best weapon for the Bengal. Chase has made Joe Burrow so much better as a quarterback. They have excellent chemistry and Burrow always looks to Chase, especially when he is in trouble. Chase also has game-breaking speed, so he can turn a short reception into a touchdown score. At +110, we get a little bit of value here. Ja'Marr Chase to score a touchdown is an excellent bet.
NFL Pick: Ja'Marr Chase any time touchdown (+110) at BetOnline
On the Rams side, I would love to go Cooper Kupp but he is at -200 right now. That means we're going to have to go in a different direction. Once again, I do like Tyler Higbee to score a touchdown. He gave me my best bet for the first touchdown, but at +225, anytime touchdown is quite the possibility, especially with his high red zone targets and completion percentage mentioned earlier. My second bet for anytime touchdown is Tyler Higbee at + 225.
NFL Pick: Tyler Higbee any time touchdown (+225) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.