The Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) and Cleveland Browns (2-5) meet on Monday night in an important game for the AFC North race.
The Bengals got some bad news on Thursday that No. 1 wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase could miss the next four weeks or longer with a hip injury. He is out Monday night, changing some of the expectations for this game after the Bengals were red hot as a passing offense thanks in large part to Chase’s last two performances.
The Bengals are still a 3-point road favorite in a game with a total of 45 points at many of the best sportsbooks. Who picks up the slack for Chase, and which Cleveland skill player has a shot at a big game? We look at some NFL prop picks for this game on Halloween night.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Monday, October 31, 2022 – 08:15 PM EDT at FirstEnergy Stadium
Bengals Prop Bet: Joe Burrow
- Over in Passing Yards
This is another big prime-time game for Joe Burrow, who is red hot with 12 touchdowns to one interception over his last five games. But we continue to see a significant home-road split for Burrow where he is far more prolific at home than he is on the road:
- Burrow at home: 327.2 passing yards per game, 8.70 yards per pass attempt
- Burrow on road: 244.8 passing yards per game, 7.03 yards per pass attempt
This trend is even more pronounced in 2022 where Burrow is averaging 368.7 yards per game at home and 247.8 yards per game on the road. Throw in the fact that Burrow is 0-3 against the Browns and will not have Ja’Marr Chase this week, and some may be going against him in this one.
However, Burrow did not have Chase when he was a rookie in 2020 and he still threw for over 300 yards with 3 touchdowns in both games against the Browns. He may not have a win yet, but Burrow has passed for over 280 yards in all three meetings with Cleveland.
No Chase, No Problem
We think he will do that again in this one. Without Chase, the Bengals still have a very solid receiving duo in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. The backs (Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine) and tight end Hayden Hurst are also productive for this offense that is getting on track.
The loss of Chase could definitely change the spread and outcome of this one, but we still think Burrow will throw for his good share of yards to hit his over for your NFL picks on Monday night.
Browns Prop Bet: Nick Chubb
- Over in Rushing Yards
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Nick Chubb was having another quiet game against Baltimore on Sunday, then the offense kept feeding him in the fourth quarter and he finished with a respectable 91 yards and a touchdown. Chubb continues to lead the NFL with 740 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns this season.
The Bengals have not been as difficult an opponent for him like Baltimore. In fact, Chubb averages 94.6 yards per game in seven meetings with Cincinnati, which is better than his career average of 85.5 rushing yards per game.
In last year’s big 41-16 win over the Bengals in the game Burrow played, Chubb had 137 yards and 2 touchdowns, his finest game yet against the Bengals. Chubb has rushed for at least 84 yards in five of seven career meetings with the Bengals.
Big Game Is a Must
With tight end David Njoku out, the Browns are down one of their most consistent passing weapons. This needs to be a big Chubb game if only to keep Burrow and his hot offense on the sideline.
The Bengals rank 19th in rushing yards allowed and 20th in yards per carry, so it has not been a stout run defense this year. The Bengals were able to take a huge lead early on the Falcons, not allowing their run game to take off. The Browns move the ball too well to let this game get out of hand, especially with Chase inactive.
Look for Chubb to pace the offense and go over 100 yards with a touchdown as he tries his best to help his Browns avoid a 2-6 start.
NFL Pick: Nick Chubb Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125) at Bovada
NFL Pick: Nick Chubb Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Bengals’ Prop Bet: Tyler Boyd
- Over in Receiving Yards
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
The instinct is to assume Tee Higgins will take over some of the lost production from Chase’s absence, but Tyler Boyd is someone more than capable of taking on a bigger role for this offense.
Boyd is enjoying the best season of his career after having a career-high 155 yards against Atlanta. Boyd is catching 76.3% of his targets this year, which would be his highest catch rate in a season. He is averaging 15.7 yards per catch, which would be a career-high. He is also averaging a ridiculous 12.0 yards per target as Burrow’s big-play weapon.
Boyd only had one catch for 11 yards against the Browns in a game in 2021, but in both 2020 meetings with rookie Burrow as his quarterback, he caught a touchdown and he had at least 72 yards. All we ask of him is to do about the same this week with at least 70 yards and a score.
NFL Pick: Tyler Boyd Over 59.5 (-114) Receiving Yards (Odds TBD)
NFL Pick: Tyler Boyd Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135) at Bovada
Bengals Prop Bet: Defense
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
We already picked Chubb and Boyd as touchdown scorers in this game, but here is a longshot choice for each team as well:
Picking someone like running back Samaje Perine is tempting as he is third on the team in touches (32), but he only has one touchdown. The other six Bengals with at least 29 touches all have multiple touchdowns scored this year.
But let’s go with the defense to get its first return touchdown of 2022. The Bengals had two return touchdowns in 2021 and one was a fumble return against the Browns.
NFL Pick: Cincinnati Defense Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+575) at Bovada
Browns Prop Bet: Jacoby Brissett
If Burrow can rush in a touchdown in three straight games, what’s stopping Jacoby Brissett from getting his second of the season? Teams love his size on quarterback sneaks, which is something he is very good at.
Brissett has not rushed a ton this season, but he does have 25 carries for 130 yards and a touchdown. He has 14 rushing touchdowns in his career, including five scores from the 1-yard line.
When everyone is expecting Chubb to get the handoff at the goal line, sneaking in Brissett might be the better call sometimes. He is a long shot with value in this game.
NFL Pick: Jacoby Brissett Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+525) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.