With the conference leaders (Bills and Eagles) both on a bye week, we do not have a lot of high-quality matchups on the Week 7 NFL slate. But if the 42-34 outcome between the Saints and Cardinals on Thursday is any indicator of what’s to come, maybe we will see scoring pick up this weekend.
Feel free to use them in a parlay or play your favorite player props lines as singles.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, October 23, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Nissan Stadium
Titans’ Prop Bet: Derrick Henry
- Over 107.5 Total Rushing & Receiving Yards
Derrick Henry seems to be up to his old tricks after a slow two weeks to start the season. He has found the end zone in four straight games, and he has rushed for at least 85 yards in three straight games, including a 114-yard game in Indianapolis in Week 4.
In his career against the Colts, Henry averages 89.2 rushing yards per game, but that includes two games as a rookie where he had just one carry. Remove those two games and his average is 105.1 against the Colts.
That’s just on the ground too. The reason to like his total yards line (107.5) more than the over in his rushing yards line (89.5) at the same price is because Henry has been productive as a receiver, which we are not used to seeing.
Henry has had at least 30 receiving yards in three straight games, a career streak for him. We know he can get to 108 yards in just rushing alone, but throw in the ability to catch the ball with the Titans needing the receiving help without A.J. Brown, and Henry should be relied on heavily to go over in yards in this big AFC South matchup.
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, October 23, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at M&T Bank Stadium
Browns’ Prop Bet: David Njoku
- Over 36.5 Receiving Yards
Keep riding this Njoku line until he disappoints. The tight end position in general has disappointed greatly this NFL season, but Njoku seems to be having a breakout year in his sixth season with the Browns.
Njoku has had at least 58 yards in four straight games, including three games over 70 yards. He is only one yard behind Amari Cooper (348) for the team lead this year, and he has been more consistent than Cooper.
Historically, the Ravens tend to contain Nick Chubb better than most defenses in the league. This has led to big passing numbers for Baker Mayfield in the past, something he was not known for in Cleveland. Of the five times Mayfield passed for 340 yards with Cleveland, four of them were against the Ravens.
If head coach Kevin Stefanski follows this same route and relies a little more on the pass with Jacoby Brissett to exploit this Baltimore secondary, then Njoku should have no problem hitting this low over for someone who is so close to leading his team in receiving this year.
NFL Pick: David Njoku Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, October 23, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at AT&T Stadium
Cowboys’ Prop Bet: Dak Prescott
- Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
There is some risk for your NFL picks with this one given the uncertainty over the kind of quarterback Dak Prescott will be in 2022, but let’s not ignore his history. Prescott has been a prolific quarterback in recent years. From 2019 to 2021, Prescott averaged 302.9 passing yards per game and 2.1 touchdown passes per game. He threw 12 touchdowns in his last three regular-season games in 2021, and he had 11 games with multiple touchdown passes last year.
But we seem to remember Prescott now for the bad playoff loss against the 49ers and the ugly performance in Week 1 against Tampa Bay that required thumb surgery and has kept him out until now.
But Tampa Bay’s defense is worlds better than the Lions this year. Prescott is also returning to an offense that has gained a lot of confidence along the offensive line, the running backs look good, and Michael Gallup has returned to form a potent trio with CeeDee Lamb and Noah Brown.
Prescott has the weapons and protection he needs to shine against a bad defense at home. Throwing a couple of touchdowns should not be that difficult for him.
NFL Pick: Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-135) at Bovada
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, October 23, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
Seahawks’ Prop Bet: Kenneth Walker
- Over 68.5 Rushing Yards
Rookie running back Kenneth Walker has had a good two weeks with a 69-yard touchdown run against the Saints and a win with 97 yards and a touchdown in his first NFL start against the Cardinals.
Walker has the home-run ability to hit the big play, and the Chargers are 31st in yards per carry allowed. It is a great combo for hitting an over. This also could be the shootout of the afternoon if you look at how high scoring the games have been with these teams when they are not playing a division rival that knows them well.
Besides, when do the Seahawks or Chargers ever play normal games? This has high-scoring nail-biter written all over it, especially after the offensive duds these teams were a part of last week.
Look for Walker to outrush Austin Ekeler in a wild one and hit his over.
NFL Pick: Kenneth Walker Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Miami Dolphins
Sunday, October 23, 2022 – 08:20 PM EDT at Hard Rock Stadium
Dolphins’ Prop Bet: Jaylen Waddle
- Over 58.5 Receiving Yards
The Dolphins are expected to get starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back for this matchup with Pittsburgh. Tagovailoa has a great connection with Jaylen Waddle, who already has three 100-yard receiving games this season.
But this offense has been so hard to judge with the starting quarterback getting injured in four straight games, including three straight games with a knockout injury. But Tua is the best option there, and he has that trusted connection with Waddle going back to college.
The Steelers should be healthier at defensive back than they were a week ago when they shocked the Buccaneers in an upset, but T.J. Watt is still out, so that should help Miami’s offense perform well.
The Steelers have also faced Tyreek Hill six times and done very well at containing him. Waddle is more likely to take advantage of the coverage drawn by Hill down the field, and he should have no problem getting to his over in yards.
NFL Pick: Jaylen Waddle Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.