AFC Championship Game Best Player Props: High Ankle Sprain or High Scoring?

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NFL Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 279.5 Passing Yards (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Patrick Mahomes Under 279.5 Passing Yards (-110)
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The 2022 AFC Championship Game is a rematch of last year’s overtime battle between the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs. The spread has been jumping like crazy at Missouri betting sites due to the uncertainty over how well Patrick Mahomes will play with his high-ankle sprain after a week.

The total is up to 48 points, which would still be down several points from the previous meetings between these teams. But we have narrowed down our favorite player props that you can find at many of the best US betting sites. You can use them in a parlay or play your favorite lines as singles.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 29, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)

  • Under 279.5 Passing Yards
  • Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted

The ankle must at least be trending in the right direction if the Chiefs have gone from as bad as a 2.5-point home underdog to a 1-point favorite again. Mahomes did lead two scoring drives post-injury, but you could see him hopping around on several plays, struggling with some of the handoffs, and missing a few throws where his mechanics were just way off because of the injury.

How does he look eight days later? We really will not know until the game happens Sunday, but we can make a few educated guesses that he will not be 100%, the Chiefs need to get the ball out of his hands quicker, and he is unlikely to do as much scrambling around or leaving the pocket.

According to Next Gen Stats, Mahomes stayed in the pocket on 88.9% of his passes after the injury (50% before it). In a way, this might be good for him against the Bengals, who have been able to make him hold the ball in all three wins the last two seasons.

But the Bengals have also defended the receivers well, and Mahomes has not passed for over 275 yards against them in three starts. Let’s bet on that to continue here with the quick passing game and run game taking over.

The Prop Pick

Also, Mahomes threw two interceptions in last year’s AFC Championship Game. One was thrown at the line by a defensive lineman. The Bengals have good pass rushers in Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard who can pressure Mahomes in the pocket, which he will likely cling to more this week. That could mean releasing a ball before he wants to avoid pressure, and the Bengals have been feasting on turnovers in big games the last two seasons.

We like the defense to get an interception here for your NFL picks.

NFL Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 279.5 Passing Yards (-110) at Bovada

NFL Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-110) at Bovada

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Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)

  • Under 277.5 Passing Yards

Burrow is getting a ton of buzz for his 5-1 playoff record and 3-0 record against the Chiefs so far, but he passed for 250 yards in last year’s AFC Championship Game, and he has been under 265 yards in all but one of his playoff games so far.

It looked like Burrow would throw for well over 300 in Buffalo last week after a dominant half, but the Bills did not threaten much in the second half, so he barely needed to throw in the fourth quarter. You expect a tougher matchup from the Chiefs here.

But I still think Burrow finishes Under as the Chiefs need to defend better on a day where the offense may not be sharp, and it is going to be cold in Kansas City as the night goes on. Temperatures should be in the teens. The coldest game they played recently was against the Seahawks, and the offense did not have 300 yards in that one, and Geno Smith really struggled without Tyler Lockett.

The Prop Pick

Burrow has more weapons and is playing very well, but they have shown an ability to step up in the running game too against these Chiefs, and it is easy to see him settling in that 260-yard range again and finishing Under at the NFL odds.

NFL Prop Pick: Joe Burrow Under 277.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs)

  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer

It was Kelce who had the big fumble in the Week 13 meeting between these teams. He will want to atone for that, and he caught a touchdown in last year’s AFC Championship Game before the offense went quiet.

Kelce ended his six-game touchdown drought last week by catching two short ones from Mahomes against the Jaguars. The Chiefs have a long list of plays they can use to get Kelce the ball in the red zone, so it does not take a big throw from Mahomes to get him a score.

The Prop Pick

Look for the Hall of Fame tight end to do his thing and score another in the postseason for the Chiefs.

NFL Prop Pick: Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110) at Bovada

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Samaje Perine (Cincinnati Bengals)

  • Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
  • Over 2.5 Receptions

This was a great pick last week as Perine was heavily involved in the receiving game with 5 catches for 31 yards in Buffalo. The only game this season where he had more catches was against the Chiefs in Week 13 when he had 6 catches for 49 yards.

One caveat: Joe Mixon did not play that game, so it was the Perine show all around as he also rushed for 106 yards and played a season-high 60 offensive snaps.

But Perine was the catalyst to Cincinnati’s 21-3 comeback win in Kansas City last postseason. He took a short pass a long way on a 41-yard touchdown to get the Bengals going in the second quarter.

The Prop Pick

With the Bengals looking to get in a groove on the road, Perine should be the third-down back and main receiving back again. Getting Over 16.5 yards is something he has done seven times this year, but in a big game, this is a player Burrow relies on. He will get his 3 catches at the very least.

NFL Prop Pick: Samaje Perine Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

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NFL Prop Pick: Samaje Perine Over 2.5 Receptions (-135) at Bovada

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Samaje Perine Over 2.5 Receptions (-135)
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Ja’Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals)

  • Over 6.5 Receptions

Chase has enjoyed playing the Chiefs in his career. He exploded as a rookie with 266 yards and three touchdowns against Kansas City in one of the best games any wide receiver has ever had in the NFL.

Chase was a little quieter in the AFC Championship Game with 6 catches for 54 yards, but he still caught a touchdown. Earlier this season, he returned from a hip injury and caught 7 balls for 97 yards, picking up key YAC again against this defense.

The Prop Pick

Look for the Bengals to continue getting their best weapon the ball in a variety of ways. Chase has gone over 6.5 catches in 10-of-14 games this season, and No. 1 receivers have had a field day against the Chiefs this year. It is one of the best picks in this game.

For Cincinnati residents looking to bet on this player, you can do it at our top Ohio betting sites.

NFL Prop Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Over 6.5 Receptions (-135) at Bovada

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Isiah Pacheco (Kansas City Chiefs)

  • Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts

Trusting Andy Reid to go with a strong run-pass balance in a big game is a risk, but the Chiefs have not been poor at running the ball this year and against the Bengals. Isiah Pacheco had 14 carries for 66 yards and a touchdown in Week 13 in Cincinnati, which is about the numbers Jerick McKinnon had in last year’s title game as the lead back.

Pacheco is the better rusher while McKinnon is the better receiver this year. Pacheco had 12 carries for 95 yards against the Jaguars last week, and his 39-yard burst was a big factor on the 98-yard touchdown drive led by Chad Henne.

The Prop Pick

The Chiefs need a decent rushing attack in this one to help out the quarterback regardless of his ankle. Pacheco is the right call for that and he needs a dozen carries.

NFL Prop Pick: Isiah Pacheco Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts (-115) at Bovada

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.