Georgia vs. Alabama SEC Championship Game Picks and Odds Breakdown

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Bryce Young #9 of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP

The Georgia Bulldogs are No. 1, but the Alabama Crimson Tide might be the better choice for your Champ Week college football picks.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Saturday, December 4, 2021- 4:00 PM EST at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Everyone likes the Georgia Bulldogs to finally break the curse and beat the Alabama Crimson Tide in Saturday’s SEC Championship Game. Well, not quite everybody; the early consensus reports show 92 percent of bettors pounding Georgia, pushing them from –4 to –6.5 on the NCAAF odds board at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review).

Mmmmm... steamy. The media narrative out there is definitely pro-Bulldogs, though, with the pundits asking out loud whether a two-loss Alabama team would make it into the College Football Playoff. To which I say: Have you not been paying attention all these years? Just when you think they’re down, the Crimson Tide keeps finding ways to win. They’re probably the “right” side for your college football picks now that they’ve moved to +6.5.

Personally, I’d Give Us... One Chance In Three

But maybe we should avoid the spread altogether and hit that Under instead. Jeff Sagarin has Georgia (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS) winning by 3.78 points using his overall “Rating” formula, but 6.72 points using his eigenvector analysis, which should be pretty good now that we’ve got a dozen games of data to work with.

Meanwhile, ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Bulldogs winning two-thirds of the time, which, as you already know, is the same as a fair money line of –200. And that’s about the same as a spread of –6 according to Wizard of Odds. FiveThirtyEight have Georgia’s chances a little smaller at 61 percent, or –156 using the indomitable BMR Odds Converter; that’s closer to the original spread, as well as Sagarin’s “Rating” prediction. Any way you slice it, the Tide (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS) are close to a break-even wager, or they have a decent chunk of betting value.

Bulldog Mentality

Why put ourselves through the wringer, though? We know what we’re getting in the Bulldogs, who have played at an elite level on both sides of the ball this year. The Tide, on the other hand, has been up and down, and they’ve barely scraped by in three of their last four games, winning by a touchdown or less despite being favored by over 20 points. Taking the “Under” might not be as much fun as picking aside, but the profit margin looks better.

There’s a 50.5-point total on the college football odds board at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) as we go to press, down a single point since the open, and Sagarin projects these teams to combine for 43.92 points. That’s a bit low compared to some of the other projections we’re looking at here at the home office, but still.

Recent results may be the reason why. The Bulldogs have the No. 1 defense on the current SP+ charts at Football Outsiders, driving the Under to a 7-5 record, but that includes 6-2 in their last eight games as they hit their stride. Alabama has the total at 6-6 this year, but the Under is 3-1 in their last four.

Even those four overtimes they played in their 24-22 Iron Bowl win against the Auburn Tigers (+20.5 at home) didn’t get them over the 57.5-point total for that matchup. Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NCAAF Pick: Under 50.5 (–108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.