Arkansas flew under the radar this year, and they have a chance to win the SEC Tournament if they can gather enough momentum to end the regular season. With four straight wins, it is easy to see why this team is peaking at the right time.
Eric Musselman has a squad in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks have the best defense in the SEC, and they want to make it to the Final Four this year. With the way JD Notae is playing, that is certainly in the cards.
Before we get to that point, the Razorbacks have to wrap up the regular season. They’ll play against the LSU Tigers this Wednesday. Will Wade’s squad isn’t as talented as it used to be, but the Tigers are still a formidable opponent in every SEC matchup.
The NCAAB odds favor Arkansas by 5.5 points, which is a lot at this point in the year.
LSU is looking for a resume booster this week on the road, but can they keep things close against Arkansas? Will the Razorbacks run LSU out of the gym? Here are keys for each team and a college basketball pick for this game.
Wednesday, March 02, 2022 – 09:00 PM EST at Bud Walton Arena
Arkansas has to improve with rebounding. For a team this talented, they only have a +1 rebound per game margin in SEC play. Winning at the margins is not sustainable, but it won’t matter if they out-rebound the Tigers in this game.
Look for Notae to take control offensively. He is one of the best facilitators in the SEC, and he knows how to distribute the ball effectively. If he can keep his assists up without causing too many turnovers, this team will be set on the offensive side of the ball.
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Both of these NCAAB teams are known for playing chippy. This game could get ugly depending on how referees handle certain situations. The Razorbacks need to stay mature if things get ugly. If they keep producing without letting emotions run high, they can force the Tigers to make mistakes on key plays.
Arkansas deserves to be favored, and the path to covering the spread is simple. However, LSU is 18-11 against the spread for a reason. What do they have to do?
We’ll have a good idea of what to expect from LSU in the first five minutes. If they come out with momentum, then this should be a competitive game until the final whistle. If not, then this could get ugly in the first half.
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To start off strong, LSU has to score on the perimeter. Arkansas has one of the best perimeter defenses in the country, and it’s why they are so efficient as a unit. If the Tigers can get some open shots against the Arkansas defense, they should be able to stay close.
Defensively, LSU needs an answer for Notae. If he has an elite performance, LSU won’t be able to match it on the offensive side. Whether they double him constantly or pick him up full-court, they have to do something that will keep him from getting in a rhythm.
Maybe they’ll attack him on the other end of the court to force him into foul trouble, or maybe they’ll simply keep him moving at all times to wear him down. Regardless of the plan, you have to do something to make him uncomfortable.
Arkansas is the better team, but they’ve played in emotional games recently. They beat a quality Tennessee team before beating Florida on the road and barely beating Kentucky. In all of those games, they were highly motivated.
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I don’t see that level of motivation happening in this matchup. These teams are technically rivals, but this isn’t Duke vs. UNC. This is more of a trap game for Arkansas, and I think they’ll have a slow start to this one.
I think Arkansas will inevitably win, but it will be close for too long. That’s why I have the Tigers covering this lofty spread on the road as we come to the end of the regular season.
NCAAB Pick: LSU +5.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.