Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves NBA Preview and Best Bet for March 7 (Archive)
The Minnesota Timberwolves (36-29) look to repeat Saturday’s big 135-121 win over the Portland Trail Blazers (25-38) in a rematch this Monday evening. Minnesota is 3-0 against Portland this season and can complete the season sweep. Let’s see what the NBA odds for this matchup tell us!
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Monday, March 7, 2022 – 08:00 PM EST at Target Center
The Timberwolves (34-29-2 ATS) are a 15.5-point favorite over the Trail Blazers (25-37-1 ATS) at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. Minnesota was a 14-point favorite on Saturday and won by 14 for a push. Minnesota’s first two wins against Portland this season were by a combined seven points. Can the Trail Blazers make this one closer?
Saturday Recap: Timberwolves 135, Trail Blazers 121
Coming into Saturday’s game, Portland had been blown out by 30 points in all three games since the All-Star break, which means Portland joined the 1988-89 Clippers and 2005-06 Trail Blazers as the only three teams in NBA history to lose three straight games by 30 points.
Given that historic ineptitude and the big spread in this one, the Trail Blazers played a great half and led 64-63. But the hot offense for Portland cooled down in the second half while Minnesota continued to move and score the ball with great efficiency.
Minnesota went from shooting 54.3% in the first half to 59.0% in the second half. The 56.5% FG% for Minnesota was the team’s best game of the season. The third quarter is when Minnesota took control with a 46-point outburst. It was still a 120-118 game with six minutes to play, but an 11-0 run by Minnesota put the game out of reach.
Minnesota’s 36 assists were its third-highest total in a game this season, and D'Angelo Russell shined with a career-high 15 assists. Karl-Anthony Towns had a monster game with 36 points, 15 rebounds, and five assists. He made 13-of-17 shots from the field for a season-high 76.5% FG%.
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Anfernee Simons did his part to stop Portland’s 30-point blowout streak. The guard scored 38 points in another big game, but unfortunately, a thigh contusion is going to keep him out of action on Monday night.
Another Blowout Coming?
The loss of Simons is huge as he’s emerged as the only big scoring threat with Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, and Joe Ingles sidelined by injuries. Josh Hart is reportedly going to return after missing Saturday’s game. Portland is 7-2 when Hart scores at least 20 points this year, and this is the first Minnesota game he’ll be active for as a member of the Trail Blazers. But he is not as good as Simons.
The Timberwolves were not whole on Saturday either as Anthony Edwards and Patrick Beverley missed the game. But between Towns and Russell, the Timberwolves have a lot to do damage with against Portland, especially with the lack of defense at the center. Towns could have another field day as he is shooting 56.9% from the field since the All-Star break with 26.5 points per game.
Portland is a bad team but 15.5 is a huge spread in this league. I like the regression idea that Minnesota will not repeat or improve on its best shooting game of the season from Saturday. This is the seventh time this season the Timberwolves will have played a team in consecutive games and their scoring differential has declined by an average of 8.7 points in those rematches.
This is the first time Portland will play the same opponent in consecutive games, and it will be one of the last since this team is not making the playoffs.
Prediction
Minnesota should definitely win its fifth game in a row, but crazier things have happened in this league. We’ve just watched Houston beat Memphis and Denver lose at home to Oklahoma City in the last week.
I would not go so far as to pick an upset win, but I am going to trust some offensive regression from Saturday night and for the Trail Blazers to keep it close enough for a cover for your Monday night NBA picks.
NBA Pick: Trail Blazers +15.5 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.