NBA Pick: Timberwolves ML (-245) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
The Minnesota Timberwolves are our top moneyline NBA pick for Wednesday – but what about the point spread and total?
It’s time to put together another three-pack of NBA picks here at the home office. We’ve carefully hand-selected the best spread, moneyline, and total from Wednesday’s eight-game slate; as it turns out, two of our picks are for the same contest, which features two teams that have seen better days.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Detroit Pistons
Wednesday, January 11, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Little Caesars Arena
What Happened to the Timberwolves?
Yes, the Timberwolves (20-21 SU, 18-23 ATS, Under 22-19) have occasionally played .500 ball or better since they were formed in 1989. Remember how they used to go to the playoffs every year during the Flip Saunders-Kevin Garnett Era? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
It could take me a while to list all the mistakes this franchise has made over the years. Their most recent folly was trading five players and five first-round draft picks to Utah for Rudy Gobert, the former three-time Defensive Player of the Year.
What works in Salt Lake City doesn’t necessarily work in Minneapolis. Gobert led the league last year in true shooting percentage (73.2) and defensive rebound rate (25.0%), but his numbers are down all across the board for his new employers, turning Gobert from an All-Star to a league-average commodity (plus-0.5 BPM at Basketball Reference).
Here’s the thing: The Wolves are 10-10 SU and 11-9 ATS since Karl-Anthony Towns (plus-3.2 BPM) went on the injured list with a strained right calf. That takes care of Minnesota’s ill-matched Twin Towers combo of Towns and Gobert. They’ve even won four straight SU and ATS.
Will the Pistons Ever Figure Things Out?
They’ve figured out how to survive as a business in Detroit: Spend as little as possible. According to Spotrac, Detroit ranks No. 26 in the league in “Active Cap” at just $102 million, up from $83.5 million last year.
All that losing has to pay off sometime, right? In the meantime, the Pistons are mired in the Eastern Conference basement at 11-33 (19-22-3 ATS, Over 25-17-1), and they have a very long list of injured players. Here are some of them:
- PG Cade Cunningham (leg)
- PF Marvin Bagley III (hand)
- SF Bojan Bogdanovic (calf)
- C Isaiah Stewart (shoulder)
- C Jalen Duren (ankle)
This is... not good. Cunningham (minus-0.9 BPM), their franchise cornerstone, has already been shut down for the season; Bagley (minus-0.8 BPM) will be re-evaluated sometime around Valentine’s Day. The other three Pistons are considered day-to-day, but all three missed Tuesday’s 147-116 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers (-14.5 at home).
The Moneyline and Total Pick
This is why we have no trouble recommending Minnesota on the moneyline for your basketball picks. We’re still waiting for those ML odds to hit our shores at press time, but the Wolves are available at around -220 overseas, which is enough for at least a fun-size bet.
While we’re at it, the Under looks pretty tasty for this matchup as well. We’re still waiting for the first NBA totals from our preferred list of online sportsbooks here at Bookmakers Review, but I see some 233s and 233.5s out there across the pond, which makes this a perfectly cromulent wager if you can get that price or better.
Don't forget that all of you that live in MN can use these Minnesota betting sites to make your bets.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves ML (-245) at Bookmaker
NBA Pick: Under 230 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Boston Celtics
Wednesday, January 11, 2023 – 07:30 PM EST at TD Garden
Are the Celtics Overrated?
They are now. Boston (29-12 SU, 21-19-1 ATS) have spent pretty much the entire season atop the league standings, and they were an incredible bargain once they hit their stride in November, with head coach Ime Udoka getting suspended and replaced rather seamlessly by Joe Mazzulla.
The shine has worn off, though. The Celtics are still winning for the most part, but they’re 4-2 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Worse, both Robert Williams III (plus-4.7 BPM) and Marcus Smart (minus-0.7 BPM) are questionable for Wednesday’s game with left knee issues.
The Pelicans (25-16 SU, 21-20 ATS), meanwhile, are making do without two of their best players:
- PF Zion Williamson (hamstring)
- SF Brandon Ingram (toe)
The Spread Pick
Now to complete the set we need our point spread bet, and the Pelicans are easily the best value on Wednesday’s NBA odds board, where they’re getting a generous 9.5 points at Heritage Sports.
Losing two former All-Stars is never good, but it does wonders for New Orleans when it comes to betting value, so bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Pelicans +9.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
