Heat vs. 76ers NBA Playoffs Game 3 Odds, Preview and Pick (Archive)
The Philadelphia 76ers have their backs against the wall at home with the Miami Heat coming to town up 2-0 in the Playoffs series. There’s a lot of blame going around right now but the bottom line is, if they don’t win tonight, the series is done.
It appears Joel Embiid will be unavailable so the line for this game has had a ton of movement since it opened. Here is all you need to know for your best bets.
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Friday, May 06, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Wells Fargo Center
Will Embiid Play Tonight?
As of this morning, Joel Embiid is listed as out for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Without him, it's hard to imagine the Sixers winning this series.
As for this game, unless James Harden steps up his game a few notches, Philadelphia is going to be in serious trouble. It is a bit unfair to put it all on Harden's shoulders but the truth is, he sees himself as a "max contract player". If that's who he is, then carrying a team is a part of the job.
There's a stat floating around that since Harden has joined the Sixers, he has not attempted 20 shots in a game. Through two games in this series, he's averaging 14 shots a game. Simply put, that isn't going to get it done for this team.
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In Harden's last season in Houston, he averaged 22.4 shots per game. This might seem harsh to say but that player no longer exists. Call it age, attrition, whatever it is, he's definitely lost a step. He was never the most athletic superstar but once that first step goes, and it goes for everyone, he needed a backup plan. So far he doesn't seem to have one.
The line for this game opened at Sixers -1 and has been steamed all the way up to Heat -3 at the NBA odds. That is a direct result of the news that Embiid does not seem to be available.
If you're a Sixers fan, the most alarming part of their current situation is that Harden actually has help. Tyrese Maxey has certainly made a name for himself in these playoffs. In this series against Miami, he's averaging 26.5 points per game on 48% shooting. Tobias Harris has also been on fire scoring 24 per game on a blistering 57% from shooting.
If the Sixers can get the best out of Harden tonight (he's averaging 18 points on 39% shooting) then maybe they can get back into this series.
Heat vs. 76ers Winning Pick
My official NBA pick for this game is Heat -3 (-115) which is available at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). If you like Miami, you'd be advised to take them early because that line is going to continue to catch steam as the day progresses.
Simply put; the Sixers aren't good enough to beat this Miami team. Even with a healthy Embiid, Miami is still the better team. While Harden continues to get a ton of blame, the fact is, they are missing a league MVP finalist. That is no small hurdle to overcome, especially against a tough defensive team like Miami.
While everyone waits for the real Harden to stand up, I've been saying for at least 6 months that Harden doesn't look right. When he got traded to Philadelphia, I said they would live to regret it and here we are, so I am in no way surprised that this is happening.
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What Harden does well right now isn't hard for Miami to stop. I won't go as far as to say Harden can't have a big game. What I will say is that there will likely be regression from either Maxey or Harris tonight which will negate the improved effort by Harden.
From the Miami perspective, I haven't talked about them much because it's so consistent. They don't rely on any one player to carry them, it's always a group effort.
Jimmy Butler isn't even playing well and the Heat have won the first two games by an average of 15 a game. The spread here is only one possession so I feel comfortable laying the points with the home team in this spot.
NBA Pick: Heat -3 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.