Hawks vs. Bucks Free NBA Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)
The Milwaukee Bucks are playing their third game in four nights as they welcome the Atlanta Hawks. Money has been coming in on the dirty birds, but is that the best area for profit potential here on Wednesday? Let’s see what the NBA odds for this matchup tell us!
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Wednesday, March 9, 2022- 08:00 PM EST at Fiserv Forum
Bucks Playing Tired
It’s hard to believe, but we’re 80 percent of the way through the regular season. Playoff teams are tuning up and bucking down for the home stretch, while the bad teams are resting and shutting down their players as they start to think about the long term.
Milwaukee has a lot more competition in the East this season after winning it all a year ago, but this time of year is especially tough on teams who made deep playoff runs and it shows sometimes. However, after losing a four in a five-game stretch, the Bucks have bounced back and are now entering their game tonight on a five-game winning streak.
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The Hawks on the other hand are trying desperately to hang on to a playoff spot. After their defense has faltered tremendously this season, they have started to play a little better since the All-Star Break.
That being said, they are coming off a bad overtime loss to the Pistons, so they should be motivated to try and steal one on the road against a much more tired Bucks team.
The Hawks are only 8-10 ATS this season when they have a rest advantage over their opponent, but with how poorly the Bucks’ defense has been on no rest lately, they have a real shot at covering here if they can buckle down on defense.
The Sharp Pick
As mentioned above, the Bucks are starting to feel the burn from their long playoff run last year and the grind of a long regular season this year. Over their last four games played on no rest, the Bucks 111.5 points per 100 possessions or more. Those were against the Pacers, Clippers, Hornets, and Kings, which, by all accounts, aren’t the greatest competition.
They won three of those four games though and they did it with a flurry of offense against what are four pretty bad defensive teams. The Hawks definitely fall into that category, so it’s not hard to see why the total of this one is sky-high at 240 points.
If the Hawks can control the pace here and play any semblance of defense, 240 may be too many points for these two teams considering the circumstances. That being said, I think the better play for our NBA picks, maybe the first half under at 122.5.
The Bucks’ legs most likely won’t start hurting until the second half and while Milwaukee has been able to best their more rested opponents lately with the offense, the Hawks’ offense is good enough to go shot-for-shot with this tired Bucks team.
Assuming the Hawks can control the pace of this one and force the Bucks to defend long into the shot clock, I fully expect this first-half total to go under. As long as both teams don’t drain a bunch of three-pointers early in the game, I can’t see both teams exceeding 60 first-half points.
NBA Pick: Under 123 1st Half (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
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