Best NBA Playoffs Player Prop Bets Today (May 18) (Archive)
Game 1 of the NBA’s Western Conference Finals is Wednesday night as the Dallas Mavericks visit the Golden State Warriors.
Here are two-player NBA prop picks on the matchup with odds from BetOnline, one of BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at Chase Center
Klay Thompson
- Over/Under 21.5 Points
TNT has the telecast of the entire Western Conference Finals, which tips off Wednesday from San Francisco.
This will be the first time the Warriors host a West Finals at their new Chase Center because of course they used to be in Oakland and didn’t make the playoffs in 2020 or ’21.
Warriors' Winning Streak
Are you aware the Dubs have won 17 consecutive playoff series against Western Conference teams?
That’s the longest active and second-longest streak of winning a playoff series against a conference/division opponent.
The only team with a longer streak was Boston with 18 straight series wins against its conference from 1959 to 1967.
Golden State also has won 12 consecutive opening games of a playoff series at home, tied for the seventh-longest streak in NBA history and currently the longest active such streak.
With all that said, I do like Golden State to win Game 1 tonight, although I’ll probably be playing the moneyline instead of giving the 5 points.
The Warriors are well-rested and that matters some. Plus, they are on an eight-game home winning streak dating to the regular season.
One thing I do want to remind bettors is to wait until the last possible minute on any wagers.
Celtics vs. Covid
COVID is still around as Celtics backers learned the hard way Tuesday evening when Boston big man Al Horford was ruled out of Game 1 of the Eastern Finals against Miami in the health and safety protocols.
That means he also likely misses Game 2 and could change the whole complexion of that series.
Speaking of COVID, Dubs coach Steve Kerr missed the final three games of the first round vs. Memphis after testing positive but is back.
Is the Under Sustainable with Klay Thompson?
If you tailed us in the Grizzlies-Warriors series, you know that I went under the point total of Golden State guard Klay Thompson four times and won on three of them.
He did break out with 30 points in the clinching Game 6 on 8-for-14 from deep, but even with how good Thompson is that’s not sustainable (he has a history of Game 6 heroics, though).
He didn’t top 21 points in any other game.
Frankly, the Mavericks are going to be tougher on Thompson defensively than the Grizzlies were – did you see what Dallas did to the Suns’ Chris Paul and Devin Booker last round?
Thompson played two of four regular-season games vs. the Mavs and averaged just 15.5 points. His points total is once again too high. DFS projections have Thompson at 19.5 points.
NBA Pick: Thompson under 21.5 points (-118) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Luka Doncic
- Over/Under 33.5 Points
Is Luka Doncic Better Than the Warriors?
Look, Luka Doncic is amazing. He’s the best player left in these playoffs, with all due respect to Jimmy Butler or Jayson Tatum, or Steph Curry.
He might be the best player in the world; the Mavs got off to a slow start to the 2021-22 regular season because Doncic was eating fast food and chugging vodka in the offseason. He was not in shape but sure is now.
- In the first half of Game 7 against Phoenix on Sunday in that shocking blowout, Doncic scored 27 points, the same amount as the Suns.
- He was the first player in the last 25 postseasons to equal or exceed the opposing team's point total in a half. In the series, he averaged 32.6 points.
- During the regular season, Dallas won three of four vs. Golden State and Doncic averaged 31.5 points.
Green vs. Doncic
It’s important to note the Warriors only had defensive demon Draymond Green for one game.
That’s going to be one key matchup to watch in this series: Green on Doncic. Andrew Wiggins also played solid defense on Doncic in the regular season.
I’d expect Klay Thompson, Otto Porter, and even Kevon Looney to get time on Doncic as well. The Suns didn’t really throw a bunch of bodies at him.
Is Doncic Have to Keep Up?
Plus, Doncic is going to have to work harder defensively this series chasing around Steph Curry, Thompson, and Jordan Poole on pick-and-rolls – could mean tired legs and short shots – than he did vs. Phoenix.
Golden State assistant coach Mike Brown is one of the best defensive technicians in the NBA; that’s partly why the Sacramento Kings hired him as their next head coach whenever the Warriors are done this postseason. Doncic may get his 30 points, but 33.5 is too high.
NBA Pick: Doncic under 33.5 points (-113) with BetOnline
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