Braves vs. Padres MLB Picks and Preview (Archive)
The Atlanta Braves are going to start a four-game series against the San Diego Padres tonight. Can the Braves get ahead in the series with a win over the Padres? Here is all you need to know for your MLB picks.
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
Thursday, April 14, 2022 – 08:10 PM EDT at Petco Park
Betting Preview
The Atlanta Braves will head out to Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres in a four-game series. This game will be the first of four between two contending teams in the National League.
Charlie Morton will get the call for the Braves after going 5.1 innings against the Cincinnati Reds on Friday. He allowed just 2 hits, 2 runs, 1 walk, and struck out 5 on 78 pitches.
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Morton had a 3.52 xFIP last season and struck out 28.6% of batters. His only downfall was walks, where he allowed 8.1% walks last season. Morton rarely gave up home runs and rarely allowed base runners outside of those walks.
The Padres, as a projected lineup, hit a .166 ISO and wOBA of .325 against righties last season. The group is led by Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, and Luke Voit, who are the only reliable power hitters against righties in the San Diego lineup. Each of those three batters hit over a .200 ISO against righties last season with an above-average wOBA to go with it.
On the other hand, Joe Musgrove will get the call for the Padres. Musgrove left off right where he finished last season. He struck out 8 batters while walking none against the Diamondbacks on Saturday, going 6 innings and allowing 2 runs on 5 hits.
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Musgrove finished last season with a 3.90 xFIP along with 27.8% strikeouts and 7.1% walks. He was extremely electric but did have problems against lefties when it came to power, as Musgrove allowed a .193 ISO to lefties last season.
Matt Olson, Eddie Rosario, and Alex Dickerson are three lefties that have solid power against righties. If you’re looking for a player prop in this game, Matt Olson hit a .228 ISO and wOBA of .378 last season against lefties and Musgrove allowed plenty of power to lefties.
Plus, righties like Austin Riley and Adam Duvall have great potential against Musgrove too with their high ISO numbers and power potential. Musgrove is much better against righties but Riley and Duvall are also terrific hitters against righties.
Overall, the Braves lineup hit just 36.4% ground balls against righties and over 21.5% line-drive contact. The Braves won’t work walks very much and could strike out a decent amount. But I’d trust the Braves to hit more extra-base hits and just flat out do more offensively with more weapons against righties.
Prediction
Therefore, I’ll take the Braves at the best sportsbooks in this one. It’s going to be a solid pitching matchup between both teams but the Braves, analytically, look better on paper and have more to work with offensively against Musgrove.
In a pick-em game, following the MLB odds, the Braves seem like the play on the moneyline.
MLB Pick: Braves (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.