The NCAA Tournament is finally here, and bettors are desperate to find the upsets that could influence the first round. Which 12-seed will make it to the Round of 32? Which one-seed will be eliminated first? Who is 2022’s Cinderella team?
After a bad loss to Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament, Arkansas could be one of those teams to lose early. They have plenty of talent, but their deep 2021 run was thanks to an easy path to the Elite Eight. This year, they’ll have tougher challenges.
They’ll play Vermont, a team that hasn’t lost since Valentine’s Day. The Catamounts have all sorts of momentum, and they know how to consistently score. They haven’t faced a team as strong as Arkansas, but they’ll have plenty of time to prepare to beat this team. They should have tricks up their sleeve.
The NCAAB odds favor Arkansas by 5.5 points. Can the Razorbacks cover? Here are keys for both teams along with an NCAA Tournament prediction for this matchup.
Thursday, March 17, 2022 – 09:20 PM EDT at KeyBank Center
Arkansas needs to see more from Notae in this NCAAB game. He leads Arkansas in both points and assists on the year. He is undersized, but he can be a dominant force in any individual game. He needs to score at least 20 for the Razorbacks to feel comfortable in this game.
Arkansas loves to get opponents into foul trouble. They consistently make these shots, and they average more made free throws per game than any team in the NCAA Tournament. That has been a staple of their season, and it must continue in this game.
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The Razorbacks need to attack the paint and get to the line. They can drive or win in the post. As long as they are getting paint touches, they should be confident. On defense, they need to avoid the easy buckets. Vermont is a solid offense, but simply forcing them to earn their points over contested attempts throughout the game should be enough for the Razorbacks to win.
Arkansas is the better team on paper, and they should be able to dictate the pace of this game. If they can get Vermont out of sorts, they should have a confident lead by the final 10 minutes. If it is still a nail-biter at the end, they won’t be able to cover the spread with a late stretch.
The Catamounts must get off to a strong start. When you are the underdog, you have to be the first team to go on a run. Once you prove to yourself that you are capable of winning this game, you should be confident enough to make the tough plays down the stretch.
Vermont needs to stay out of foul trouble. They would rather win a barn-burner than lose their key players due to bad fouls. Thankfully, they only average 13.8 fouls a game.
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Vermont is an efficient team on offense. They take smart shots that usually go in. The main question is if someone can step up and make the tough shots when things don’t work. When the shot clock is winding down, who will make the contested jumper?
Also, Vermont needs to force more turnovers. They usually win with efficiency and solid rebounding, but they need to force Arkansas into more mistakes. Whether this is with a press defense or a faster pace, they have to find something unique that will work.
So, who will cover the spread?
I like Vermont as a potential Cinderella candidate. They have momentum and a successful offense. The things that they consistently do will translate to this moment, and they should be able to avoid the big mistakes.
Arkansas is a solid team, and they could easily win. Because of that, I’m taking the Vermont spread for my college basketball pick. It’s not as risky as the moneyline, and Vermont could easily keep this one close. The only concern with this is if Arkansas extends the lead late due to fouling. If Vermont is down, they’ll try to extend the game. We already know Arkansas can make free throws, so this is risky. Still, it makes the most sense.
NCAAB Pick: Vermont +5.5 (-115) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.