Today’s Best Bets Include a (+178) NCAA Basketball Parlay (Archive)
Today’s college basketball odds have been released and one game, in particular, interests me as worth investing in: Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play both money-line and total for this game. Feel free to parlay both bets at one of BMR’s top sportsbooks.
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels
Monday, March 07, 2022 – 11:30 PM EST at Orleans Arena
Fun Fact
Only one team has scored more than 74 points on Saint Mary's all year. Wrong. It's not Gonzaga. The correct answer is Santa Clara.
Figuring Out SMC's Defense
In that game - a 77-72 Bronco triumph on February 8 - the start was actually slow. One thing that the Broncos struggled with was the hard hedge of SMC's ball-screen defense and the overall feistiness of its defense, which could be swarming.
But the Broncos spread out SMC's defense, avoided calling screens, and let its athletes take over in isolation. The Bronco athlete most worth highlighting is Jalen Williams. Extremely athletic for his size at 6-6, Williams boasts a combination of strength and handle.
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His skilled handle is apparent, for example, in a wicked crossover that he'll use to discard his on-ball defender. But even when the Broncos are inclined to run ball-screens, I think they'll still have an easier time inside.
Gael defenders will pay less attention inside because they will surely want to pay more attention to PJ Pipes who excelled in both regular-season contests against the Gaels. Pipes is characteristically strongest from behind the arc where he converted 42 percent of his three-point attempts in conference play.
For Gael defenders, paying more attention to Pipes means less digging from the perimeter and generally less swarming inside.
Bronco Playmakers
The thing is, I think Pipes can still have a strong game because he can create his own shot. He does not rely too heavily on assisted baskets because he has the individual playmaking abilities to overcome the attention that defenders pay to him.
Whether Gael defenders pay more attention to Bronco players behind the arc or not, I also like Josip Vrankic tonight. Vrankic makes up for his lack of size by flexing his shooting touch, his ball-handling skills -- which also help his assist rate be as high as it is -- and his athleticism.
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The latter, combined with his underrated strength which he uses to draw a lot of fouls, allows him to attack the basket with difficult shooting angles that make it harder for opponents to reject his shot attempts.
After a slow start to conference play including a lackluster effort in the first meeting with Saint Mary's, Vrankic improved massively in the second game and this improvement is in line with his overall strong play of late.
Saint Mary's Will Keep Pace
Saint Mary's scored 72 points in its loss on February 8 to Santa Clara despite oddly missing many easy layups. Scoring at the basket won't be a problem with normally efficient center Matthias Tass, who at 6-10, 245 pounds possesses too much physical strength.
While Santa Clara does boast an equally big man in Jaden Bediako, Bediako's tendency and need to foul will make up for any advantages generated by his strength. Surprisingly so for a center, Tass is a very efficient free throw shooter.
More Picks: Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s West Coast Conference Tournament Semifinal Picks and Odds Analysis
Meanwhile, Parker Braun, Bediako's backup, is much too small to contain Tass. Generally, Santa Clara allowed over 70 points in both games against the Gaels because its defense is relaxing enough to compete against.
The Broncos don't force a lot of turnovers and they don't get a lot of steals. Bronco passiveness suits the Gaels who like to be methodical, passing the ball from side to side until they find an open shot.
Their patient passing plus the attention that Tass commands inside will allow improving Gael shooters to have an easier time from behind the arc. Tommy Kuhse, in particular, has become a regular scoring threat for the Gaels. He converted 43.1 percent of his threes in conference play.
Side Verdict
As a team, Santa Clara's ceiling seems very low because of its unequivocal struggle against the top teams of its conference, which is a struggle that Saint Mary's does not share.
The Broncos lost both games to both Gonzaga and San Francisco. They lost at Saint Mary's. While they beat Saint Mary's at home, the Gaels shot at an oddly low percentage inside the arc because of their missed easy layup attempts.
Their higher turnover rate in that game, produced especially by faulty drive-and-kick attempts, is also something that hurt them but that won't repeat itself tonight because the Gaels are normally excellent at avoiding turnovers.
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With the demonstrably improved productivity of guys like Kuhse, Alex Ducas, and others, Saint Mary's has too many reliable scorers for Santa Clara to contain especially given the Broncos' deficient rim protection.
Normally averse to fouling as a team, Bediako's fouling -- he averages just .1 fewer fouls per game than blocks -- will help Saint Mary's get more points than one should expect against Santa Clara from the free-throw line.
For the above reasons, I recommend parlaying the over with the SMC money-line for your NCAAB picks. Feel free to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
Parlay Picks
- Saint Mary's ML (-225)
- Over 138.5 (-108)
NCAAB Best Bet: Two-Legged Parlay (+178) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.