Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Top Picks for Wednesday: Vols Will Sweep, But Will They Cover? (Archive)
NCAAB Pick: Vanderbilt +9 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
No. 6 Tennessee has dominated in-state rival Vanderbilt in their SEC college basketball series over the past handful of years, and it’s tough to see the Vols losing in Nashville on Wednesday – but it doesn’t mean they cover.
Which side of the 9-point spread has the best value at BMR’s top-rated online books? We also have a play on the total.
Let’s take a closer look at the NCAAB odds to find the values we need to keep cashing our NCAAB picks!
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Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Wednesday, February 8, 2023 – 07:00 PM EST at Memorial Gymnasium
The SEC Network has this matchup between No. 6 Tennessee and unranked Vanderbilt.
The Commodores don’t sell out at home very often because they usually aren’t very good and there are a lot more fun things to do in Nashville, but it should be a full house Wednesday with the Big Brother Vols in town.
On Jan. 10 in Knoxville, the Vols were 16.5-point favorites at the top-rated sportsbooks but didn’t come close to covering in a 77-68 win over Vandy. The Dores led by two at the half but allowed the first nine points out of the break. Santiago Vescovi and Julian Phillips each scored 15 points for UT -- Vescovi scored 12 of his points in the second half.
Vandy hung around largely on the back of star center Liam Robbins, who had 18 points and seven rebounds. Jordan Wright added 13. More on him below.
That was Tennessee’s 11th straight win in the series, tied for the longest winning streak by either team in the rivalry's 101-year history.
UT leads all time 129-75. The road team is 18-7-1 ATS in the past 26 meetings.
UT Struggles Offensively At Times
No doubt in my mind that No. 6 Tennessee (19-4, 8-2 SEC) is good enough defensively to reach the Final Four, but I’m not sure it is consistent enough offensively.
That was on display twice last week, a 67-54 upset loss at Florida and then a brutally ugly 46-43 home win over Auburn on Saturday. UT shot 27.9% vs. the Gators and 5-for-25 from deep, and 27.0% vs. the Tigers and 2-for-21 from deep.
Doesn’t matter how good your defense is if you can’t score. UT ranks No. 1 nationally in:
- Scoring Defense (54.6 ppg)
- Field-Goal Percentage Defense (.343)
- Three-Point Defense (.219)
The Vols have now held 11 opponents under 50 points. Only three teams have even reached 70 points and just five players have scored 20 against Coach Rick Barnes’ club. Foes have made a total of 113 three-pointers against that defense, a scant 4.9 per game.
The Vols should reach the 20-win mark on Wednesday and it would mark only the third time the program did that on Feb. 8 or sooner.
In its last 26 games against SEC opponents, the Vols are 23-3 with wins over every league opponent except Alabama. The Tide and Vols haven’t played over that span but will on Feb. 15 in Knoxville. The winner there could be in the driver’s seat for the SEC title as Bama (9-2 in league play) leads by a game over UT.
Tennessee is (+250) at the top-rated books to win the SEC regular-season title, (+250) to reach the Final Four, and (+1100) to win it all.
ESPN Bracketology currently has the Vols as a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament’s East Region and opening against No. 15 Colgate.
Vandy’s Wright Expected Back
Vanderbilt is a superpower in college baseball but simply will never compete at a high level in the SEC in men’s basketball and football because it’s a small private school with the toughest academic requirements in the league by far. Its academic reputation is why the SEC keeps it around.
The Commodores (11-12, 4-6 SEC) haven’t made the NCAA Tournament or finished with a winning SEC record since 2017, and they surely will not again this year. In his fourth season, former NBA All-Star guard and coach Jerry Stackhouse is very much on the hot seat. He was always a peculiar hire in the first place with no major head coaching experience.
Vandy did snap a three-game losing streak on Saturday by beating a terrible Ole Miss team, 74-71.
The Commodores Have Some Pieces, But Questions Remain
In his second game back from a multiple-game injury absence, Liam Robbins had 19 points, 12 rebounds and seven blocks. He’s among the best big men in the SEC if not country and his 283 career blocks are fourth among active Division I players.
Guard Tyrin Lawrence added 18 points and 10 rebounds. It was the first time the Dores had two players with double-doubles since Aaron Nesmith and Yanni Wetzell on Feb. 16, 2019 vs Auburn.
Guard Jordan Wright, who averages 10.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.1 assists, was out in the concussion protocol but did practice Tuesday so that bodes well for a return. The team remains without reserve forward Lee Dort due to a foot injury.
Vanderbilt is 99-259 all-time in teams ranked in the AP Top 25, including 1-3 this season. Under Stackhouse, that record is 3-16. That win was at home vs. No. 15 Arkansas on Jan. 14. I don’t see a win here, but the Dores can hang around at home with Wright back – they did lose by this exact spread on the road last time and playing at home is worth at least a few points.
You should be betting Under the Total of any Tennessee game. Simulations I have run have UT winning something like 68-61.
NCAAB Pick: Under 134.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.