This is one of the more fascinating games of Week 4. Pittsburgh, at least by the odds, is looking at a 1-3 start. After an opening contest debacle, Green Bay could be 3-1 and at least resembling the team most thought they would be. Let’s see what gives.
If you read various Pittsburgh or western Pennsylvania sports sites that cover the Steelers, the impression you get is Ben Roethlisberger is 99, not 39 years old. However, anyone that watched him play last week knows the end of the line is at hand for Big Ben.
With Tom Brady the new standard for older signal callers, in truth, that’s not fair to Roethlisberger, who has gone the traditional route of an aging QB. So, what does coach Mike Tomlin do with Big Ben fully aware backups Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins are younger, just not necessarily a better option?
Top online sportsbooks like YouWager (visit our YouWager Review) have the Steelers as +6.5 point away underdogs. However, we would not be surprised to see those betting odds teeter between +6 to +7 before Sunday.
Sunday, October 3, 2021 – 4:25 PM EDT at Lambeau Field
If you just look at the numbers, Pittsburgh passing yards are an acceptable 255 yards a game. Nevertheless, the same problem that hampered the Steelers in the second half of last season is happening again. Pitt is 24th in yard per pass attempt at 5.9. No question part of this is on Roethlisberger, but another part is on the revamped offensive line.
The O-Line is not passing protecting well and with the running game last in the NFL in rushing yards (53 per game) and yards a carry (3.2) a heavy pass rush has to force the ball out sooner. With Green Bay a pedestrian 16th against the rush, Pittsburgh has run to set up the pass.
The Steelers defense is not playing at a high level in permitting 22 points a game. To beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, they must shut down the run and double team Davante Adams on third and long to get Green Bay off the field regularly. If not, a third straight setback is coming.
It seems odd that when preseason magazines come out, they don’t always address a potential weakness unless it was already present. A strength of Green Bay’s for years has been the offensive line. Though not having brilliant individual talent, they became a cohesive group each season.
The Packers have completely changed their O-Line which is starting two rookies and second and third-year players. Granted, when tackle David Bakhtiari returns, this contingent will have more experience, but Bakhtiari finishing the season is hardly a sure bet. This has curtailed the run game to 3.4 YPC, though it was up to 4.0 last week vs. San Francisco. For the Packers’ offense to return to past numbers, the line has to keep improving.
We heard about the changes on defense, yet the Pack’s defense has not come close to playing four strong quarters in a given game. The secondary is frequently out of position and when the opposing team goes no-huddle, the back seven is still moving around at the snap. Definitely not a championship-level defense today.
Because of the timing of injuries, Big Ben and AR are facing off for the first time since 2011 and the first time on the not-yet-frozen tundra.
One could make a case for NFL picks in backing Pittsburgh because they are 12-3 ATS as road underdogs. But the Steelers offense is completely lifeless and averaging 16.7 PPG. Green Bay has put up 35 and 30 points in their past two contests and is showing signs of coming together and finding ways to move the ball.
Yes, Pittsburgh is tough on defense, but normally Rodgers is extremely effective in the red zone, especially at Lambeau. The Pack comes in 9-2 ATS after one or more consecutive Over’s, while Pitt is 5-13 ATS away after scoring 14 points or less in their last outing and 2-6 ATS following a SU loss.
NFL Pick: Packers -6.5 (-110) with YouWager (visit our YouWager Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.