Raptors vs. Suns NBA Best Bets Today (March 11) (Archive)
The Phoenix Suns (53-13) host the Toronto Raptors (35-30) this Friday evening. Phoenix is coming off a big 111-90 win in Miami, the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Toronto beat the Spurs 119-104 in San Antonio on Wednesday to end a three-game losing streak. Let’s see what the NBA odds for this matchup tell us!
Toronto Raptors vs. Phoenix Suns
Friday, March 11, 2022 – 09:00 PM EST at Footprint Center
The Suns (35-31 ATS) are a 6-point favorite over the Raptors (35-29-1 ATS) at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. With Devin Booker’s return, are the Suns ready to dominate teams again, or will the Raptors keep it close?
January 11 Recap: Suns 99, Raptors 95
The only meeting between these teams this season came two months ago to the date in Toronto. The Raptors led 31-23 after one quarter, but the Suns stormed back to win the game. The Suns were clutch at the free-throw line to put away the Raptors in a low-scoring contest.
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Toronto got at least 21 points from Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, and OG Anunoby, but none of them shot better than 45%. The rest of the team did very little against Phoenix’s No. 2 ranked defense, but the Raptors were down by their two most inconsistent starters (Gary Trent Jr. and Scottie Barnes). The Raptors only shot 40.4% from the field and 21.6% from three. Ten missed free throws also did not help.
Phoenix was led in scoring by Jae Crowder with 19 points, but it was a balanced attack with all five starters in double figures. Chris Paul had 12 of the team’s 25 assists, but the new backcourt combination of Booker and Cameron Payne will have to take up that responsibility with Paul out. The Suns are 36-1 this season when they are at least plus-4 in assists.
Toronto had just 12 assists in Wednesday’s win, tied for the team’s second-lowest total in a game this season. The Suns were uncharacteristically sloppy against Toronto with a season-high 20 turnovers. Phoenix has the third-lowest turnover rate (12.9%) this season and the seventh-lowest rate (12.6%) since the All-Star break.
Recent Play: Suns Rising, Raptors Middling
The Suns have been without Paul since the All-Star break. In that time, they are 5-3, though Booker missed four games too in that span. Despite these absences, since the break, the Suns are still 14th in FG% (47.5%) and 17th in Offensive Rating. That’s respectable enough without your two best players.
As the sample size of minutes without Paul on the court increases, we can see that Phoenix is plus-5.6 points better in Net Rating with Paul on the court vs. off this season. That is more than double the impact that Booker (plus-2.4 points) has had.
Meanwhile, the Raptors are 3-5 out of the break and shooting 44.0% from the field, tied with Orlando for the second-worst FG% in the league. Before beating the Spurs on Wednesday, the Raptors shot under 40% in consecutive losses to the Magic and Cavaliers.
Phoenix is 33-0 this season when opponents shoot no better than 43.5% from the field. The Suns are 46-3 when holding opponents under 48% shooting. Toronto shoots under 48% in 75.4% of its games this season, including eight of the last 10 games.
In games following a win, Phoenix (29-23 ATS) has the largest margin of victory (7.8). If any team can build on Wednesday’s impressive win in Miami, it is this Phoenix team.
Prediction
The Suns have won an NBA-best 80% of their home games this season. The spread record (16-19) could be better at home like it was a year ago (30-17), but this team usually performs in its own building. With Booker back and healthy, I like the Suns to keep rolling for your NBA picks this Friday night.
NBA Pick: Suns -6 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.