Rams vs. Packers Week 15 MNF Betting Picks: Green Bay Will Keep Slim Playoff Hopes Alive (Archive)
NFL Pick: Packers -6.5 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Both the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers are technically still in the NFC playoff hunt but not really, as they meet Monday night to close Week 15 in the NFL.
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Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers
Monday, December 19, 2022 – 08:15 PM EST at Lambeau Field
Preview
This writer remembers when the NFL released the schedule around mid-May and this game between the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams and three-time reigning NFC North champion Green Bay Packers was circled as one of the most important in the NFC in the 2022 regular season with potential playoff tiebreaker ramifications. Matthew Stafford vs. Aaron Rodgers. What was not to like?
Except… both teams have been massive disappointments and almost surely will both finish with losing records. Frankly, the game is essentially meaningless. Last season, the teams also played at Lambeau Field in Week 12 and the Packers won 36-28. Rodgers threw for 307 yards and 2 TDs while rushing for a score. Stafford threw for 302 with 3 TDs and a pick.
This is the latest-ever Monday night game held at Lambeau Field. It’s the first prime-time matchup between the teams since they met on MNF at Lambeau Field on Nov. 29, 2004. That was the only previous time the clubs met on Monday night.
Green Bay has covered the NFL spread in 8 straight meetings.
Mayfield Saves Rams
There have been some very unlikely wins this season in the NFL, but I’d argue none more unlikely than the Rams’ 17-16 home victory over the Raiders on Thursday night in Week 14 to snap a 6-game losing streak and avoid playoff elimination for one more week.
Not only was Los Angeles down 16-3 with just more than 3 minutes to play, but Baker Mayfield was at quarterback only 2 days after being claimed off waivers from the Panthers. Yes, terrible Carolina didn’t want the former No. 1 overall pick any longer, but the Rams were so desperate at QB with Matthew Stafford out for the season that they took a shot.
Cam Akers scored on a 1-yard TD run with 3:19 left and the defense forced a Vegas punt on the next possession.
Performance Recognition
Mayfield, who didn’t start but relieved John Wolford early, took over at his 2-yard line and led the game-winning 98-yard drive, capped by a 23-yard TD pass to Van Jefferson and then the winning PAT. Stunning - and probably killed any chance the Raiders had of earning an AFC wild-card spot.
That 98-yard TD drive was the longest go-ahead TD drive that began in the final 2 minutes over the last 45 seasons. Mayfield improved to 2-1 in his career when coming off the bench and his team trailing by at least 13 points. When he starts in that scenario, he’s 0-22.
Mayfield was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week and obviously will start this game. Bryce Perkins will be his backup as Wolford is banged up.
It's not clear if 3-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald will play after missing the past 2 with a high-ankle sprain. Can’t imagine he does play or why the team would let him return at all this year with the season in the toilet.
Will the Rams Make It to the Playoffs?
Technically, LA can still make the playoffs but would have to win out and get a lot of help elsewhere. It’s not happening - and the Rams don’t own their first-round 2023 pick. That goes to Detroit because of the Stafford trade.
The Rams are 1-4 against the spread on the NFL odds in their past 5 after a win.
Last Start of the Season For Rodgers?
Note that as of this writing, the only sportsbook in BMR listing Green Bay at -6.5 instead of -7 is Bookmaker and since I’m leaning toward the Packers, that’s why I chose that book. Others may have dropped it by the time you read this.
Green Bay comes out of its bye week at 5-8 and 10th in the NFC. No question that Aaron Rodgers and Co. will need to win out to make the playoffs for a 4th straight season.
When/if the Packers are eliminated, there’s talk that Rodgers will be shut down for the year and the team will take a look at former first-round pick Jordan Love under center to see if he’s the long-term answer. After all, Rodgers could retire this offseason or ask for a trade.
The four-time league MVP hasn’t had a 300-yard game this year and needed the bye week with numerous injuries, especially the thumb on his throwing hand. He said on The Pat McAfee Show this week that "the thumb is doing a lot better. It was nice to have that week off. The ribs are doing better too, it was nice to finally get some sleep.”
Players' Injuries
No. 1 running back Aaron Jones left the team’s 28-19 win in Chicago with a shin injury but will be good to go. Rookie wideout Romeo Doubs missed Week 13 due to an injury and also should play.
Fellow rookie WR Christian Watson has become a factor in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race with 7 TD catches in his past 4 games, including at least 1 in each.
Pro Bowl left tackle David Bakhtiari underwent emergency surgery ahead of Week 13 to remove his appendix and he’s not playing. Then again, he barely has all year due to injury.
Head-to-Head Stats
Green Bay has won 6 of the last 7 regular-season matchups with the Rams. Including the postseason, the Packers have won each of the last 4 home games against the Rams, outscoring them, 116-59.
Rodgers has started against the Rams 7 times (including postseason) with the Packers winning 6 and scoring at least 24 points in all 7. Rodgers has thrown for 15 TDs, 3 INTs, and a passer rating of 109.6 against the Rams.
Game Prediction and Picks
While it appears no snow on Monday night, it’s going to be very cold. I think that hugely benefits Green Bay and helps keep the scoring down - but 39.5 points is too low for your NFL picks.
Something like Packers 24 -Rams 17. The over is 4-0 in Green Bay’s past four.
For residents of Green Bay looking to bet on this game, you can check out our top Wisconsin betting sites. Nevertheless, if you are a Rams fan who thinks Los Angeles will do better, you can place your bets at any of our top California betting sites.
NFL Pick: Packers -6.5 (-115) at Bookmaker
NFL Pick: Over 39.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.