NHL Player Props Best Bets: Sebastian Aho Good Shout for Game Points Total (Archive)
It’s been a strange week in the NHL with a lot of underdog players scoring, or lesser-known names playing on the third and fourth lines. With that in mind, we are going to take it cautiously with betting on some obvious plays.
Check out what our NHL picks are for tonight as we target a low-scoring affair between Dallas and Toronto and the Carolina Hurricanes’ back-to-back game against the Anaheim Ducks.
- Overall NHL Article Plays This Season: 50-26
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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Dallas Stars
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 – 08:30 PM EST at American Airlines Center
Roope Hintz (Dallas Stars)
- Over/Under Shots
Dallas Stars center Roope Hintz has hardly averaged 2 shots per game thus far this season, having taken 50 shots in 24 games played.
The Finnish-born player has seen 3 or more game shots in just 31% of his games, meaning his true value to see under 2.5 shots here should be around -200, not the -135 the sportsbooks are offering us. We believe to have found some value here.
Although maybe not as much as the gap suggests as other factors have to come into play and not just hard stats. Hintz ticks the boxes in terms of shooting very little but we have an added factor in the Dallas Stars opponents tonight, the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Leafs have allowed the 10th least amount of shots so far this season and it has to be noted they have played more games than any other team inside the top 15, meaning when other teams catch up, they should be more like a top 5 for shots allowed.
NHL Prop Pick: Roope Hintz Under 2.5 Shots (-135) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Joe Pavelski (Dallas Stars)
- Over/Under Shots
It’s fair to see why Joe Pavelski’s over/under 2.5 shot line is sitting at exactly +100 for the over as he has seen three or more shots in 48% of his games this season. (Not exactly 50% but the books always sway the NHL odds in their favor, even slightly as the true odds based on the percentage should be +108 for his total to go over).
Yes, the Leafs are good at not allowing shots, and the Stars sit in the middle of the NHL in overall shots taken, but we like the fact Pavelski has been on a hot streak having taken 3/1/5/6/3/6/2 shots in his previous seven games.
If you're a Lone Star State resident, take a look at the Texas betting sites guide to find a reputable book.
NHL Prop Pick: Joe Pavelski Over 2.5 Shots (+100) at BetOnline
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Anaheim Ducks
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 – 10:00 PM EST at Honda Center
Martin Necas (Carolina Hurricanes)
- Over/Under Shots
Martin Necas has been the Hurricanes second highest shooter this season and is the highest shooting forward on the team as number one is defenceman Brent Burns.
Although we like Bruns over 2.5 shot line we didn’t like laying -200, and couldn’t find an alternative 3.5 line, but if you can find Burns for over 3.5 shots tonight, we advise taking that at +110 or better.
Necas has seen 4 or more game shots in 48% of his games this season, so having done some quick math we are very much liking his odds to see over 3.5 shots at +120 against this Anaheim Ducks team who have allowed the most shots in the entire NHL this season and almost 90 more than the second worst tanked team.
NHL Prop Pick: Martin Necas Over 3.5 Shots (+120) at BetOnline
Sebastian Aho (Carolina Hurricanes)
- Over/Under Points
Not only do the Ducks have issues allowing shots but also allowing goals, which is only natural when you give up the most shots in the entire league. Allowing 4.19 per game (the worst in the league).
We believe the best value for points on this Hurricanes team is second highest point scorer Sebastian Aho to see 2+ game points tonight at +175. Aho has scored 10 goals and assisted a further 16 thus far this season.
Although Aho has had just 5 of 25 games this season see 2+ game points, there’s no better time than now to get back on the board against this weak defense.
North Carolinians planning to bet on this game, check out this North Carolina betting sites guide.
NHL Prop Pick: Sebastian Aho Over 1.5 Points (+175) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.