MLB Parlay for May 3: A Bet That Pays (+303) (Archive)
Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: the Angels vs. Red Sox and Nationals vs. Rockies.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the money-line for the first game and the run-line for the second. Feel free to parlay both bets at an online sports betting site in order to maximize your profit.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, May 03, 2022 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Who Starts for the Angels Today?
Angels' starter Noah Syndergaard, aka Thor, finds himself in a unique spot because, instead of pitching in his previously scheduled start, he got to rest his arm. He thus enters today's game having last pitched on April 23.
Syndergaard is in a great spot today because, in 27 career starts off six or more days of rest, he enjoys a 2.89 ERA.
Syndergaard's Stuff
Thor is no stranger to yielding a sub-three ERA in a season. His 2.85 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) substantiates the extent to which he is performing well this season. As he did in the best seasons of his career, he is doing a great job of inducing ground balls.
His sinker is his favorite pitch. This is a classic ground-ball-inducing pitch, which helps explain why he is inducing grounders with a career-best 58% frequency.
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But variety is also a prominent characteristic of his arsenal. He throws four pitches with between 17% and 27% frequency: in addition to his sinker, he is comfortable throwing his changeup, fastball, and slider. The only pitch that is yielding a high BA is his fastball, which he primarily throws to lefties.
Rafael Devers is Boston's only dangerous lefty and he is 0-for-3 in his career against Thor. Plus, Syndergaard is great at limiting extra-base hits even with this pitch.
As for his other primary stuff, opponents slug .000 against his slider, .111 against his sinker, and .278 against his changeup. He'll also pull a curveball out of nowhere that is hard to hit because this pitch intensifies the velocity differential created by other pitches.
With this velocity differential, he ably keeps batters off-balance as they already struggle to guess which pitch is coming to them.
Syndergaard vs. Red Sox' Batters
I am already disinclined to back Boston in any form because the Red Sox are cold. They are 2-7 in their last nine games with their last two losses coming against the lowly Orioles.
The Red Sox look especially concerning tonight because they rank below average in slugging against Syndergaard's four favorite pitches despite having faced so many guys who don't pitch as well as Syndergaard.
Who Starts for the Red Sox Today?
Red Sox' starter Michael Wacha is overachieving statistically. His 1.77 ERA masks a mediocre 4.01 FIP. He has benefitted from yielding an unsustainably low .154 BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
Wacha will struggle tonight because he matches up poorly with Angels' batters. Primarily, Wacha throws a fastball and changeup. Both pitches combine for just over 70% of his arsenal. The Angels rank sixth in slugging against these two pitches from righties.
Look out, for example, for Taylor Ward, who enters today on an eight-game hitting streak for LA
MLB Pick: Angels ML (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies
Tuesday, May 03, 2022 - 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
Who Starts for the Nationals Today?
Nationals' starter Erick Fedde has bad numbers this season -- he's suffering a 4.47 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding), for example -- despite having faced mostly easy competition.
He got to face the Marlins at home -- Miami's hitting has been particularly anemic in other teams' stadiums this season. Moreover, he also got to face Arizona's low-ranking lineup.
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Now he goes from facing soft tests to having a tough test in a venue that, albeit in a limited data sample, has been unkind to him. In his career, he has pitched in two games in Coors Field. His career ERA in this venue is 9.00.
His struggles here are to be expected given the fact that he primarily throws a curveball. This pitch does not break like it normally does in other venues, which means that the pitcher has all sorts of problems that he doesn't have to usually deal with when throwing this pitch.
For example, he has to time its release differently in order to hit his desired location. Denver is high-altitude, so the conditions are different and they affect curveballs relatively strongly. This fact helps explain why Fedde's counterpart does not like to feature a curveball in his arsenal.
Who Starts for the Rockies Today?
Rockies' starter German Marquez is coming off a tough-luck outing in which his 3.35 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) shows how well he performed individually. He did his best job this season of inducing ground balls and forcing soft contact with his pitches.
Expect him to build off this success because he features a fastball-slider combo and the Nationals rank 24th in slugging against these pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Rockies -1.5 (-120) at BetOnline
MLB Parlay Verdict
Expect Syndergaard in his good spot to help LA dominate a cold Red Sox squad that suffers matchup disadvantages tonight.
Rockies' wins at home tend to come by multiple runs because higher-scoring games yield more potential for wins by multiple runs. Behind their starting pitcher advantage, expect the Rockies to win comfortably.
For the above reasons, parlay the Angels money-line and Rockies run-line for your best bets.
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks
- Angels ML (-120)
- Rockies -1.5 (-120)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+303) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.