Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s NCAA Basketball Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)
The Gonzaga Bulldogs already won the WCC, but they’d like to finish the regular season undefeated. St. Mary’s presents the most challenges in the conference for Gonzaga. On the road, can the Bulldogs cover against the Gaels? Let’s take a look at the NCAAB odds for this matchup!
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels
Saturday, February 26, 2022 – 10:00 PM EST at University Credit Union Pavilion
The San Francisco Dons fell short on Thursday, at home against Gonzaga. Tonight, the Saint Mary's Gaels will try to find a way, at home, against Gonzaga. Gonzaga has just two losses on the year to Duke and Alabama and has been perfect in league play this season.
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But as always, the Gaels usually present the most problems for Gonzaga on an annual basis. The Gonzaga Bulldogs could finish the West Coast Conference undefeated and likely will achieve that tonight.
The Bulldogs have an effective field goal percentage of 59.9 percent while knocking down 38 percent from deep and 61.6 percent from inside. The Bulldogs move so fast but rarely turn the ball over, losing the ball just 15.8 percent of the time.
Gonzaga will earn a high amount of offensive rebounds, but St. Mary’s should be able to make it difficult for Gonzaga. The Gaels are holding opponents to 21.8 percent offensive rebounds, which is the fifth-best rate in college basketball.
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The Gaels have also held opponents to a 48.2 percent effective field goal percentage and earned over 20 percent turnovers this season. Teams are shooting 33.8 percent from deep and 47.1 percent from inside the arc this season against the Gaels.
On the other hand, Gonzaga is even more elite on the defensive end in comparison to Saint Mary's. The Bulldogs are holding opponents to 30.4 percent from deep and just 40.9 percent from inside. Gonzaga is terrific on the defensive glass, giving up just 22.9 percent offensive rebounds and like Saint Mary's, Gonzaga rarely fouls teams to the line.
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The Bulldogs won’t force a whole lot of turnovers and might even lose the turnover battle, but the reality is, Gonzaga’s offense might just be too good to stop.
Prediction
The schedule is like this for one reason. The West Coast Conference wants big-time, meaningful games to close out the West Coast Conference regular season. While Saint Mary's won’t be able to win the WCC this season, sitting 2.5 games out, this will give the Gaels an opportunity to figure out Gonzaga in time for the WCC Tournament.
Once the regular season concludes, the Bulldogs will be the one seed and Saint Mary's will be the two seed. If everything plays out as expected, these two teams will meet again with a potential NCAA Tournament bid for Saint Mary's.
For my NCAAB picks, I’d like to think that the Gaels would already make the tournament, but you just never know. Anyway, as I said before, Gonzaga’s offense will be too much to handle, even for Saint Mary's. We just saw Gonzaga go absolutely berserk on the offensive end against a really good San Francisco team. That won’t change against Saint Mary's.
NCAAB Pick: Gonzaga -9.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.