Johnny Cueto’s recent injury could keep the San Francisco Giants out of our MLB picks this Wednesday when they visit the New York Mets.
Tuesday, August 24, 2021 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
On the surface, there isn’t much betting value on either side of Wednesday’s matchup between the San Francisco Giants and the New York Mets. Both sides have opened at -105 on the odds board at Heritage Sports; Nate Silver’s crew at FiveThirtyEight like New York to win 51 percent of the time, the equivalent of a –104 fair moneyline (no vig attached) according to the undefeated BMR Odds Converter.
Dude, where’s our profit margin? This would normally be where I steer you towards the total for your MLB picks – but not today. This game has a little extra something-something to it: Johnny Cueto is coming off the injured list to start for San Francisco. We’re already getting close to a “free” wager (i.e. zero expected value either way) on New York at these MLB odds. Maybe Cueto will be rusty enough to make this a profitable bet.
It’s already been something of a miracle season for Cueto (3.93 FIP). He hasn’t looked this good since 2016, his first year with San Francisco (and the last of his two All-Star seasons) after signing that fat six-year, $130-million contract. The injuries have been piling up since then, but Cueto has been healthy this year for the most part – even if the Giants are only 10-9 in his 19 starts for a meager 0.46 units in earnings.
Then it happened: Cueto hit the 10-day IL on August 11 with a strained right flexor. It was said to be a mild strain, but when you’re 35 years old and you weigh about 230 pounds, everything hurts. This isn’t the first time Cueto has run into flexor issues, either. He injured the same ligament in 2015, and again in 2017. How will he bounce back this time? And is he being rushed back into the rotation, after Anthony DeSclafani (right ankle inflammation) was put on the IL this past Sunday?
While San Francisco fans have their eyes glued on Cueto, the Mets will send Taijuan Walker (4.28 FIP) to the hill, which is a bit problematic for us: New York have lost each of Walker’s last six starts. They’re still up 3.04 units this year on a team record of 14-9, so that’s encouraging, and the Mets only scored a grand total of two runs in Walker’s last three appearances – including the last two versus the Los Angeles Dodgers and their brilliant pitching staff. Maybe they can muster up a few more runs against Cueto this Wednesday. Maybe.
The Giants also have a pretty good bullpen, ranking ninth overall on the season at plus-3.3 WAR (according to FanGraphs), and second overall at plus-1.9 WAR since the All-Star break. This was going to be a small speculative bet anyway, but let’s make it even smaller given how well San Francisco has played this year, and as always, may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Mets (-118) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.