Duke vs. Virginia NCAA Basketball Betting Analysis and Free Pick (Archive)
It has been more than a quarter of a century since a Virginia team swept a regular-season series from Duke, and the Cavaliers have a chance to end that streak when they host the Blue Devils on Wednesday’s NCAA basketball betting card.
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Wednesday, February 23, 2022 – 7:00 PM EST at John Paul Jones Arena
Currently sitting outside of the field for next month’s NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, Virginia is trying to make a late push to go to an eighth consecutive dance as it prepares for the visit from Duke. Tony Bennett has his team playing more consistently than earlier this season, and the Cavaliers start to play Wednesday tied for fifth in the ACC with Wake Forest.
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This will be Mike Krzyzewski’s last trip to Charlottesville as Duke’s head coach, and he brings the Blue Devils into the contest sitting atop the Atlantic Coast Conference standings by a game over Notre Dame. Duke also earned the No. 8 spot – the final No. 2 seed – in the early reveal by the NCAA Tournament selection committee this past weekend.
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A rematch from a little more than two weeks ago in Durham, ESPN provides the prime-time broadcast, and Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) has the Blue Devils favored by 5. With both teams trending to the ‘over’ in their last 5-6 games, Wednesday’s scoreboard target is 130.
Virginia was on the right side of the NCAAB scores thanks to a late 3-point bomb from Reece Beekman when the Cavaliers and Blue Devils clashed at Cameron Indoor Stadium on February 7. With Duke favored by 11, Virginia took the lead midway through the first half and stayed in front until there were a little under five minutes remaining in the game.
The 69-68 final was right in line with recent meetings that have seen five of the last six decided by two points or less. It was a struggle all night for Virginia from beyond the arc, with Beekman’s late 3-pointer one of just two in 12 attempts the Cavaliers made good on.
Duke won the glass battle and outscored Virginia 18-5 at the charity stripe, but the Cavaliers did a better job protecting the rock with just five turnovers compared to 15 for the Blue Devils. Duke has won six of the last nine matchups and holds a huge 122-53 advantage over Virginia in the rivalry.
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The Blue Devils were last on the floor at John Paul Jones Arena on Leap Day 2020 when the Cavaliers posted a 52-50 decision as 3-point underdogs. The meeting earlier this month went ‘over’ a 128½-point total, the fourth time in the last five for the final to skip past the mark.
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Krzyzewski was not happy with his team’s defensive performance against Virginia, especially at the end of the game when the Blue Devils left Beekman open for his winning shot. Another issue that night was the defense that Virginia applied to Duke freshman Paolo Banchero, the team’s leading scorer at 16.9 PPG who went scoreless in the second half.
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Though the loss at home to an unranked Cavaliers team as 11-point chalk on the college basketball odds was tough to swallow, it may have served as a wake-up call for the Blue Devils who have won their four games since. Two of those were on the road at Clemson and Boston College, and Duke has done well in conference road games overall (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS).
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Bennett and the Cavaliers picked up a huge win last Saturday down in Coral Gables where Miami was favored by a bucket at online betting sites. Trailing by eight at the half in something of a must-win, Virginia found a new gear in the second half for a 74-71 triumph. The Cavaliers opened the final 20 minutes on a 12-4 run and were paced by Jayden Gardner’s 23 points.
Outside shooting was still a problem as the Cavaliers netted just five of their 16 tries from beyond the arc. That issue has plagued Virginia all season with the Cavaliers ranking 264th nationally making just 32% of their 3-pointers. They have managed to make up for it by keeping turnovers down and making good on free throw opportunities.
Following the earlier loss to Virginia, Krzyzewski noted the Cavaliers were “hungrier” than his Blue Devils who were coming off a rivalry win over North Carolina. Virginia should still be hungry given its bubble status, and that trend in the rivalry supporting college basketball picks on the underdogs is too tasty to pass up.
NCAAB Pick: Virginia +5 (-105) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.