Conference Championship Games Last Chance Value Picks: Then There Were Two (Archive)
NFL Pick: Eagles -2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have made it to the four best teams in the NFL this season and the NFL betting odds back that thinking with as close as the point spreads are in both championship matchups.
What should you do for NFL picks this Sunday? Keep reading for an early preview of the NFL Championship games for this coming Sunday.
Remember, fans from the Bay Area or the City of Brotherly Love who are looking to make a wager on this game should be sure to check out our top-rated California or Pennsylvania betting sites.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, January 29, 2023 – 03:00 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field
Top-seeded Philadelphia entered the playoff fray last week and there was by the number of bets placed on the New York Giants.
The Eagles were expected to win but not come close to covering the -7.5 points. That proved unwise thinking.
Philadelphia marched right down the field for a touchdown to start the game and built a 28-0 lead on their way to a 38-7 blowout in a matchup that wasn’t that close.
The Eagles are back hosting the NFC title game for the first time in five years when they went on to win the Super Bowl.
San Francisco had a tussle with Dallas but fought through not having the running game work for a half before taking over in the second half to win 19-12 as 3.5-point favorites.
This is the 49ers' second straight appearance in the NFC championship and third in four years.
This is just the second-ever playoff meeting between these clubs, with the previous one a wild card affair in 1996.
Very Close Except For One Aspect
When it came to total defense, these were the top two units in the NFL, with the 49ers 1st and the Eagles 2nd, separated by less than a yard a game (0.9).
Though each team does it differently, the foundation of each offense is running the ball, with Philly 5th and the Niners 8th and they were 3rd and 5th respectively in total offense.
With such close numbers and point spread effectively telling us the home team is the difference, where do we find an answer?
Jalen Hurts was an MVP candidate from mid-season until he got hurt.
He appears healthy and as we have seen all season he can throw or run with equal effectiveness to be a playmaker.
How Will Purdy React to a Top D on the Road?
Brock Purdy has surpassed everything, anyone could have imagined, sporting a 7-0 starting record. He makes all the necessary plays, doesn’t turn the ball over, and runs the plays properly.
He’s only played two road games at Seattle and Las Vegas and the latter was a virtual home game for his team crowd-wise.
Hurts has more ways to help his squad if they are ahead or behind.
Purdy has not gotten rattled but if his team is down double-digits early or in the fourth quarter, yet how will he respond against the NFL’s top pass defense and sack unit?
That’s the difference with Philly winning by 4.
Score Prediction: Eagles 27 – 49ers 23
NFL Pick: Eagles -2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 29, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Reports have Patrick Mahomes doing fine in practice in dealing with his high ankle sprain and is ready to go.
As fans we hope that is true, Mahomes magic comes from his ability to move around in the pocket and be creative in running the ball or finding receivers when defenses cannot cover after a while.
Frankly, that is the most important aspect coming in the AFC Championship and that is why Kansas City went from a home favorite to an underdog and now back to a favorite.
All Eyes on Mahomes' Ankle
If Mahomes is anyway compromised, how does that affect the Chiefs?
One could make a strong argument that Cincinnati gave the most impressive performance of the season in going to Buffalo and pounding them 27-10.
The Bills had a date with destiny to play the Chiefs again and all the Bengals did was run the pigskin down Buffalo’s throat with a tattered, yet, very physical run game, and Joe Burrow hit a bullseye on nearly every pass he tossed to his receivers.
Cincinnati is Better and Tougher
As most everyone is aware, Cincinnati is 3-0 SU and ATS versus K.C. in the past 56 weeks.
We chuckle at reports saying Kansas City could have won all three games with two halftime leads and the Chiefs up seven at Cincinnati going into the 4th quarter in this year’s conflict before falling.
If we know anything about professional football, it is a fourth-quarter game.
After some wanted coach Zac Taylor fired after his first season, we are quickly learning this coach relishes being unappreciated and sells that message to his team.
The Coach and Team Have a Chip on Their Shoulder
The game plans are complete and he’s quietly built a very physical team on both sides of the ball, having an assassin at quarterback in Burrow.
That’s to take nothing away from how good Kansas City is, but if Mahomes has to stay in the pocket and aggravates the injury (which seems likely), Cincy doubles Travis Kelce, plays more man coverage ,and heats up the pass rush up the middle, forcing Mahomes to move around.
Taylor’s crew is 7-1 ATS in games according to top-rated sportsbooks where the line is +3 to -3 and 9-0 ATS vs. quality offensive teams scoring 27 or more points a game the last two seasons.
Cincinnati at Kansas City looks like an epic football game for who goes to the Super Bowl from the AFC. Picking a side and a total are not easy choices for this contest, but one aspect seems obvious.
Joe Burrow might take the crown as the NFL’s best quarterback if he can lead the Bengals to a Super Bowl victory.
Chase Will Likely Be a Top Target Again
Cincy has a formidable array of weapons Burrow can call on and one of his favorites is Ja’Marr Chase.
The still only 22-year old has averaged almost eight catches since returning from an injury in early December, being targeted 11.4 times a contest.
Chase has had three straight games with a touchdown along with five of his last six when taking the field and figures to add at least one more this week.
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Score Prediction: Bengals 31 - Chiefs 27
NFL Prop Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown (+100) at Heritage Sports
NFL Pick: Bengals +1 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.