Nets -1(-108)
Bucks vs. Nets NBA Playoffs Game 7 Picks: It’s Going to Be a War in Brooklyn (Archive)
The Milwaukee Bucks visit the Brooklyn Nets in what should be a can’t-miss win or go home Game 7 on Saturday. Here’s a complete preview, including betting odds and NBA picks.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Brooklyn Nets
Saturday, June 19, 2021 – 08:30 PM ET at Barclays Center
The Nets opened as 1-point favorites at JustBet and over at FiveThirtyEight, they have them at -2. This leaves a 1-point gap between the projections and the actual NBA odds. We need at least two points between the projections and the lines before we lay any serious wood. Here we are not getting enough.
FiveThirtyEight gives the Nets a 57 percent chance to win. The equivalent
You Have to Respect James Harden and Khris Middleton
Forget James Harden’s talent/mind, you really have to love basketball to just play on one leg and deliver 16 points, seven assists, five rebounds and four steals in 40 minutes, hitting 3 of 6 3-point attempts!
The Nets didn’t lose games in the final three-five minutes in this series, it was actually in the first quarter. They had to crawl back from 12-15-point deficits and on Thursday they even cut Milwaukee’s lead to five points before the Bucks put it away and won 104-89. Even in Game 5 a bad start made things difficult.
The Bucks have been overlooked in the NBA Futures market and criticized this season but this is their best team in the Giannis era. Khris Middleton is taking over games because he knows he’s the go-to guy. Giannis still dominates but he also knows when to let Middleton lead, they have key role players like PJ Tucker, Bryn Forbes
Prediction
The difference between this Bucks team and previous ones is that Khris Middleton doesn’t defer anymore, he is the clear go-to creator and he takes it upon himself to go get buckets in key moments. Middleton dropped 38 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in Game 6 and the Nets have to figure out how to contain either him or Giannis, who finished with 30 points and 17 rebounds on Thursday.
Kyrie Irving (plus-4.1 Offensive Box Plus-Minus) was around 40 percent of Brooklyn’s entire offense and once he went down, the team has been grinding. Durant has to go off like in Game 5 and Harden has to keep finding ways to contribute but they need Joe Harris to step up significantly, he can’t be just 1 of 4 from 3-point range again. Jeff Green also has to play much better, he was the X-factor in Game 5 with 27 points on 7 of 8 from beyond the arc on Tuesday but he regressed on Thursday with just five points on 2-for-9 from the field and 1-for-4 from distance.
If the Nets get off to another double-digit deficit in Game 7, they will have a hard time winning. I do see James Harden and Jeff Green playing much better and Kevin Durant will likely be on the court for 48 minutes in a game that could go down to the wire. As talented as Middleton is, his production from Game 6 isn’t sustainable and can you really trust Giannis to close the game? The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings in Brooklyn and the Nets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite.
NBA Pick: Nets -1 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.