Bet This MLB Parlay at (+271) on Wednesday (Archive)
Sportsbooks have released their odds for today’s baseball action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in St. Louis vs. Kansas City and Texas vs. Philadelphia. For reasons that I will explain, you should play the money-line in the first game and the run-line in the second. Feel free to parlay both bets at a top-rated online sportsbook in order to maximize your profit.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals
Wednesday, May 04, 2022 – 01:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
Who Is Adam Wainwright?
Cardinal starter Adam Wainwright is, in terms of his 3.45 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding), enjoying his best season since 2014.
This fact about Waino might just be a good secret because it is easy to dismiss him given his uninspiring 4.00 ERA and given the fact that he is known for his control and is yielding more walks than usual.
Walks might seem like a bad thing. In most cases, it is a sign of poor control. But more walks are a good thing in Waino's case because his control is still strong. His strong control is evident in heat maps, which show the extent to which his pitches hit the borders of the strike zone.
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This locational consistency -- the fact that he consistently places pitches where it is more difficult for batters to make good contact with them -- explains the excellence with which he is avoiding home runs. In short, Waino is not walking guys because he has issues with command but because he is a plate-nibbler.
Likewise, he is doing a better job of inducing ground balls than he ever has before. He is inducing them at such a high rate (53.8 percent) largely because of his sinker-curveball combo. These are two of his favorite pitches. The former is a classic grounder-inducing pitch while he ably locates the latter in lower parts of the strike zone where batters swing on the top of it, thus producing a ground ball.
Wainwright vs. Royal Batters
I like Waino today because he matches up excellently against Royal batters. Collectively, they rank dead-last in slugging against Waino's favorite pitches -- the sinker, curveball, and cutter -- from righties.
While recency bias may compel belief in Royal batters given their strong effort in their last game, they have very rarely ever shown consistency from one game to the next.
Cardinal Batters vs. Lefties
The Cardinal lineup is righty-heavy. Its top guys -- Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, -- are righties. Tommy Edman is having an amazing season for himself. He is slugging .600 against lefties. Overall, the Cardinals rank second in slugging .481 against lefties.
They will dominate Royal lefty Kris Bubic who has been awful even against teams like Cleveland which normally struggle against lefties.
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Wednesday, May 04, 2022 - 06:45 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Zack Wheeler Right Now
It is easy to dismiss Philly starter Zack Wheeler given his atrocious ERA. However, his current ERA masks a pretty good 3.61 FIP.
More importantly, Wheeler is figuring things out. In his last two starts, he yielded a 1.07 FIP against Milwaukee before yielding a 2.74 FIP in his last start against the Rockies.
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All we need to know is that there is nothing wrong with Wheeler. His initial performances, no matter how bad, mean nothing because we know given his recent form that he is capable of performing his best. Thus, his ERA is a stat that we should discount with our sports betting in mind.
Wheeler's fastball is a serviceable pitch and his sinker-slider duo is lethal -- his slider is effective against both left- and right-handed batters while his sinker helps him take care of same-handed batters.
Pitcher Matchups
I like Wheeler today because Texas ranks dead-last in slugging .269 against Wheeler's three favorite pitches from righties. Meanwhile, Texas trots a left-handed starter today in Martin Perez. The fact that Perez is a lefty bodes well for the Phillies because they rank sixth in slugging against lefties.
Look out for Rhys Hoskins, for example, who slugs .579 against lefties.
Parlay Verdict
Expect the Cardinals to dominate Kansas City from start to finish while the Phillies, similar to the Cardinals, take advantage of opposing left-handed pitching en route to a strong victory. For the above reasons, parlay the Cardinals money-line and the Phillies run-line for your MLB Picks.
Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
MLB Parlay Picks
- Cardinals ML (-135)
- Phillies RL (+113)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+271) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.