Today we preview a very entertaining American League West clash between the Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels, study the MLB odds and share our MLB picks.
Friday, September 17, 2021 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
The Athletics are three games behind the Blue Jays and Red Sox for the second Wild Card spot in the American League while the Angels are seven games behind the A’s. Down the stretch, wins are going to become more important for Oakland than for Los Angeles. The Athletics might pose value tonight but that’s not the only reason why. Over the past 30 days, the Athletics have posted the 18th-best OPS (.726), the 16th-best wOBA (.318), and the 12th-best wRC+ (106) in MLB. They’re not exactly mashing the ball (.163 ISO, 20th in MLB; 29 home runs, 23rd in the majors), but they’ve been very disciplined (19.9 K%, sixth-lowest in baseball; 7.9 BB%, 17th-highest in MLB).
The Angels are 4-6 in their last 10 games and they rank 18th with a .311 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and 14th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) at 97 this season. Friday’s original starter, Shohei Ohtani, has been their best player, leading the Angels in home runs, RBIs and On-Base Percentage but just two players other than him have 17 or more home runs.
The A’s are going with Cole Irvin (4.00 FIP), while the Angels respond with Jhonathan Diaz (4.49 FIP in Triple-A). The Athletics are down 5.4 units on a 13-15 record in Irvin’s 28 starts this season. Shohei Ohtani (3.43 FIP) was supposed to start on Thursday but the Angels wanted to give him an extra day of rest. He played catch on Wednesday but came away from the session feeling soreness in his right arm and rather than push him, the Angels decided to keep him off the mound for the time being. The two-way star gave up six earned runs on nine hits with one strikeout and zero walks over just 3 1/3 innings in a 10-5 road loss against the Astros last Friday.
Cole Irvin (9-13, 4.04 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) allowed two earned runs on six hits with eight strikeouts and one walk over seven innings to get a no-decision in an 8-6 loss against the Rangers on Saturday and he is 1-2 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in four starts against the Angels this season. The current Angels lineup is 20-for-76 (.242) against him. Shohei Ohtani is 4-for-12 (.333) with two doubles, one home run
The Athletics opened at -126 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), but over at FiveThirtyEight, they already have them at +108 based on our calculations (they suggest the Athletics will win this game 48 percent of the time). Matt Olson (149 Weighted Runs Created Plus) is the player to watch on Friday. A Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) of 100 is the league average. Olson’s 149 Weighted Runs Created Plus is 49 percent above the league average, and he leads the A’s in batting average, home runs, RBIs, On-Base Percentage (OBP)
The Angels rank No. 20 in hitting value (0.4 WAR) in September according to FanGraphs while the Athletics are 7th in the majors at 2.9 WAR and the Athletics are No. 7 in Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in September at .335 while the Angels are 28th in baseball with a .285 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in that span. Perhaps we can get some value from the total. The Under is 17-10-1 for Irvin.
ESPN’s park factors for 2021 have Angel Stadium ranked No. 14 overall for run creation at 1.043, and 8th in home runs at 1.227. Friday’s weather report calls for clear skies and temperatures in the high-60s at game time with 66 percent humidity and very little wind to speak of. The 6 mph winds are expected to come blowing out from third base to right field. It’s not much, but Oakland’s projected lineup has five batters with a strikeout rate above 21 percent, three batters with a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) above .340 and three batters with Isolated Power (ISO) above .185 while the Los Angeles lineup has eight batters with a strikeout rate above 21 percent, three batters with a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) above .340 and three batters with Isolated Power (ISO). I’m taking the Under. Keep that bet size small.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-101) at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.