Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Best Bet: Bronx Bombers To Prevail in Boston
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LT Profits
- July 28, 2024
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We are now 12-6 in our last 18 plays entering Sunday’s MLB betting matchups, including a +144 winner on Friday at the top-rated sportsbooks. We are back today with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model favors a side in Sunday Night Baseball this week with the Yankees visiting the Red Soz.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Sunday, July 28, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Fenway Park
The Yankees and Red Sox have split the first two games of this series in Boston in their continuing rivalry. We are backing the Bronx Bombers to prevail in the series finale with Carlos Rodon facing Tanner Houck on Sunday Night Baseball.
Nice ERA, But…
Houck comes in at 8-6 while ranking sixth in the Major Leagues with his 2.71 ERA. His xFIP is a bit worse, but it is still very good at 3.25. Despite those numbers, we are skeptical that Houck will continue to be this good, particularly tonight vs. perhaps the most disciplined lineup in baseball.
Houck has a weak soft/hard contact rate of 11.0% / 32.1%, but he has pitched around that with a good K/BB ratio of 8.33 / 2.12 per nine innings. The contact ratio should come more into play against teams that put balls in play, and the Yankees certainly do that.
Not only do the Bronx Bombers lead the majors in both wRC+ against right-handers at 124 and in OPS against them at .788, but they also lead baseball in offensive walk rate at 10.5%. Furthermore, the Yankees are in the bottom third of the league in strikeout rate, in 22nd at 20.9%.
Strikeouts Piling Up
Now, Rodon may be fortunate to be 10-7 given his 4.42 ERA and 4.22 xFIP. But he also has some promising signs, starting with a nice K/BB ratio of 9.63/2.76 per nine innings, a nice improvement from 8.95/3.92 per nine innings last season. That was a lost year with Rodon posting a 6.85 ERA and 5.30 xFIP while battling injuries.
Carlos is now the healthiest he has been since joining the Yankees, and that was apparent last time out when he posted 10 strikeouts while limiting the Rays to one run on only two hits in seven innings. That marks the third time in his last four starts that the southpaw has allowed three runs or less.
The Pick
We expect Rodon to continue his resurgence, while we expect Houck’s high hard-contact rate masked by his good ERA to get exposed by the Bronx Bombers. Thus, bet the Yankees Sunday night.
Predicted Score: Yankees 6 – Red Sox 4
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-105) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
