Nationals vs. Cardinals MLB Best Bet: St. Louis To Avoid Home Sweep
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LT Profits
- July 28, 2024
MLB Pick: Cardinals ML (-144) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are now 12-6 in our last 18 plays entering Sunday’s MLB betting matchups, including a +144 winner on Friday at the top-rated sportsbooks. We are back today with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Sunday comes in the Show Me State, where our model likes a side when the Nationals visit the Cardinals.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Sunday, July 28, 2024 – 02:15 PM ET at Busch Stadium
The Cardinals are six games out of first place in the NL Central and two games out of a wild card spot, yet they have dropped the first two games of this series to the 49-56 Nationals. We are betting on St. Louis to avoid getting swept at home with Miles Mikolas facing DJ Herz Sunday.
On the Job Training
Even at seven games under .500, the Nationals are probably overachieving as a very young team with some pitchers, including Herz, basically getting on-the-job training at the big-league level. That may suit well for coming seasons, but Herz has been erratic thus far in his rookie campaign.
Yes, he has an excellent strikeout rate of 11.15/9, but that is over only 36.1 innings during which he is 1-4 with a 4.95 ERA. When DJ is not striking people out, he is combining a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 13.5% / 38.5% with a low groundball rate of 35.3%, which is never a good sign. Furthermore, his Stuff+ of 93 does not support the bloated strikeout rate, so expect that to drop as his innings rise.
Great Slider is Key
The Cardinals are turning to the veteran Mikolas to try and stop the bleeding, and we admit that he is lucky to be 8-8 given his 5.07 ERA. To be fair, his xFIP is quite a bit better at 4.21 and he has been better since increasing the usage of his slider, which has now become his most-thrown pitch at 28.3% of the time. That makes it one of four pitches he has thrown over 10% percent of the time with three of those being over 20%.
Making his slider the primary pitch of a vast arsenal is a smart move as it is rated an outstanding 125 on Stuff+. The move has had a nice impact as Miles has now allowed three runs or less in three of his last four starts, including limiting a potent Atlanta lineup to two runs in six innings last time out.
This assignment should be easier as the Nationals rank only 18th in wRC+ against right-handers at 96 and 17th in OPS at .694.
The Pick
We are trusting the veteran Mikolas to build on his better form as of late over the rookie Herz who is still developing. Back the Cardinals as home favorites.
Predicted Score: Cardinals 6 – Nationals 4
MLB Pick: Cardinals ML (-144) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
