The New York Yankees are in a slump. The New York Mets are all over the place. Someone has to beat the MLB odds this Friday.
Friday, September 10, 2021 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
I predict that someone from New York is going to win a baseball game this Friday night. It could be the New York Yankees, even though they’re in a funk right now. It could be the New York Mets, who have been hovering around .500 for most of the past month. They’re going to meet at Citi Field, and while the official MLB odds have yet to be released for some reason, we do have the Yankees favored slightly at –115 on the overseas market, with the Mets at –105. Let’s see if either side has any betting value.
We’re not sure what the hold-up is with those MLB lines. Both starting pitchers have already been announced; the Yankees are going with Jordan Montgomery (3.57 FIP), while the Mets respond with Tylor Megill (4.43 FIP). That matchup obviously favors the Bombers, who are up 2.16 betting units behind Montgomery this year on a team record of 15-10. Megill does have the home side in the black, though, earning 1.25 units on a record of 8-6.
Ah, maybe this is the problem: While the official MLB website has Megill penciled in for the Mets, other outlets think it will be Taijuan Walker (4.33 FIP). Interesting. Megill is the No. 5 starter in their rotation, so maybe they’re thinking about skipping his turn – he last pitched on Saturday, while Walker pitched on Sunday. The Mets could go either way, but given how close these two gentlemen are in FIP, we’re not going to sweat it here at the home office.
Not only that, we’re going to barrel ahead and refer to the projections at FiveThirtyEight, which were made assuming that Walker would get the start. They’ve got the Yankees winning 53 percent of the time in that scenario, or –113 according to the impeccable BMR Odds Converter. Looks like those overseas lines are pretty tight. Perhaps we can get some value from that 8-run total for our MLB picks. With Montgomery pitching so well, and the Yankees hitters underperforming, the Under is 16-8-1 this year with the lanky southpaw on the mound.
The Mets can’t hit for beans either, leaving the Under at 8-5-1 for Megill; Walker has the Over at 13-12 on the season, but just 1-4 in his past five starts. The Mets lost all four of those Unders, too, which tells you all you need to know about how anemic they’ve been. Now, all we need is some help from the weather. There isn’t a lot to steer us in either direction – except for the 10-mph winds expected to come blowing in from center field to first base. It’s not much, but it will help the Under cash in, so yes, we will indeed buy that for a dollar.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.