Warriors vs. Grizzlies NBA Predictions and Pick for March 28 (Archive)
The Memphis Grizzlies (52-23) host the Golden State Warriors (48-27) this Monday evening and BMR has all the NBA odds. Memphis has been red hot with an 8-1 record over the last nine games. Golden State is 1-5 ever since Steph Curry was injured against the Celtics.
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Monday, March 28, 2022 – 08:00 PM EDT at FedExForum
The Grizzlies (49-26 ATS) are a 10.5-point favorite over the Warriors (36-35-4 ATS) at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks with a total of 222.5 points. Since February, these teams are opposites when it comes to the spread. The Grizzlies are 15-7 ATS and the Warriors are only 8-16 ATS since February. Memphis covers at the highest rate in the NBA this year (65.3%). Can the Grizzlies shine without Ja Morant once again?
Series Recap: Grizzlies Lead 2-1
Memphis has been a tough opponent for Golden State this season, and the Grizzlies can win the season series in this final meeting. In the first matchup in October, the Grizzlies overcame a 17-point deficit after the first quarter to win 104-101 in overtime in what became a defensive slugfest. Ja Morant led the Grizzlies with 30 points and Steph Curry led the game with 36 points. No other player scored 20 points.
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That was the closest we came to seeing these teams at full strength against one another. While this is the first meeting this season that Curry and Morant will both miss, it should hurt the Warriors more. Curry scored 46 points in his team’s only win against Memphis back in December.
In the most recent meeting in January, won 116-108 by Memphis, the Warriors faded in the fourth quarter and only scored 18 points. Golden State only shot 42.7% from the field and also lost the rebound, assist, and turnover battles.
We have seen Memphis excel without Morant, but the Warriors have a lot to prove without Curry even if Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are finally back to playing together. This will be the first time this season that Golden State sees that duo together, but lately the Warriors are living and dying by the three-point shot from Thompson and Jordan Poole.
It's been mostly dying ever since Curry went down.
Missing Star: Grizzlies Are Stunning
While team sports are guilty of randomness and things that make little sense (“splits happen”), what’s happening in Memphis is nothing short of historic and stunning. The Grizzlies are now 17-2 without superstar guard Ja Morant this season, the best record in NBA history for a team in games without its All-Star player (min. 15 games).
We’ve never seen anything like this before and over such a large sample size (nearly a quarter of a full season). It's not like Memphis has a “Big Three” and can just lean on two future Hall of Famers when Morant is out. Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, and Jaren Jackson Jr. are all young, solid players who have never made an All-Star game.
Neither has center Steven Adams, the ninth-year veteran who leads the team with 10.0 rebounds per game. Even backup guard Tyus Jones has been a middling pro, but he’s had 10 assists in two of his last three games.
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De’Anthony Melton is on fire and has made 61.8% of his three-point shots over the last four games, all wins by at least 12 points. These Grizzlies just destroyed Milwaukee, which had Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton back, by 25 points on Saturday.
It makes little sense that the Grizzlies can be this good without a superb athlete in Morant, who was shooting 49.3% and averaging 27.6 points per game. But the numbers do not lie. The Grizzlies are minus-3.4 points in Net Rating with Morant on the court compared to him off this season.
As for the Warriors, they are 3-8 without Curry and he makes them plus-11.4 points better in Net Rating when he’s on the court. So, this matchup is really showing us two extreme sides of how teams play without their superstar point guard. For Memphis, it is hard not to be excited about the playoff potential for this team right now as it builds confidence without Morant.
Golden State’s confidence was already a bit shaken before the Curry injury. Now the team must find a way to win games differently again. So far, it has not worked out on this road trip with losses to the Magic, Hawks, and the Wizards were the latest low point on Sunday.
Predictions
Fourteen of the 17 Memphis wins without Morant have come by at least 10 points. Crazier things have happened, but the Grizzlies should win this game in an impressive fashion. The offense is hot, and they are blowing teams without lately. Golden State is struggling on both sides of the ball and really misses Curry. I will trust the Grizzlies to keep rolling for your NBA picks this Monday.
Score Prediction: Grizzlies 124, Warriors 110
NBA Pick: Grizzlies -10.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.