Warriors vs. Nuggets Free NBA Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)
The Golden State Warriors will be shorthanded again without Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson. On a four-game losing streak, can the Warriors pull off a big upset against the Denver Nuggets, on the road?
Let’s take a look at the NBA odds for this game!
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets
Monday, March 07, 2022 – 09:00 PM EST at Ball Arena
Betting Preview
The Denver Nuggets are coming off a huge come-from-behind win against the New Orleans Pelicans last night. Nikola Jokic carried the team in crunch time and the Nuggets won their 38th game of the season. On the other hand, the Golden State Warriors have been struggling and have lost four straight games.
Currently, the Nuggets are heavy favorites against the Warriors with Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins expected to miss tonight’s game. The Warriors are still getting really good looks this year, no matter who is on the floor.
Golden State is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 55.3 percent while scoring 112.4 points per 100 possessions this season. Turnovers can get high for the Warriors and offensive rebounds don’t come around too often, but overall, the Warriors can light up the scoreboard with good shot selection and efficient scoring.
The Nuggets, on the other hand, have dominated the defensive glass, holding teams to just a 23.4 percent offensive rebounding percentage. The Nuggets likely won’t capitalize on the Warriors’ careless play in this matchup as the Nuggets only average 13.3 percent turnovers this season.
Betting Analysis
However, the Nuggets will keep the Warriors off the foul line at a consistent pace in this game, which should help the Nuggets keep the Warriors in check on the defensive end. Also, the Warriors have been an elite defense throughout the season, holding opponents to 106.8 points per 100 possessions this season.
The Warriors have forced teams into tough shots and continue to get rewarded for their great defense with 15.4 percent turnovers this season. On the glass, the Warriors are also above-average, limiting opponents to 25.5 percent offensive rebounds.
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Denver will always take good shots. But outside of that, the Nuggets' offense isn’t that spectacular. The Nuggets average 113.1 points per 100 possessions and shoot an effective field goal percentage of 55.2 percent but Denver is below average when it comes to turnovers, offensive rebounding, and free throw rate.
Expert Prediction
If both of these teams shoot lights out from the floor, I’ll take this on the chin. But ultimately, both teams get really good looks and score at solid paces. Still, turnovers are going to happen between both teams and second chances won’t be nearly as easy to come by.
Both teams also don’t get to the foul line at a heavy rate. It’s just that both teams shoot quality looks. But if one team isn’t on its game today, the total will go under.
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It takes two to tango and neither team really does anything extra to help get this game over, outside of taking good looks. So, for my NBA pick, I’ll bank on at least one of these two teams struggling from the field at some point in tonight’s game.
NBA Pick: Under 223 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
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