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UFC in Vegas 39: Rodriguez vs. Dern Complete Breakdown and Analysis (Archive)

Originally published on October 5, 2021

The UFC returns to the Apex Center for UFC in Vegas 39 event for a top-ranked women’s strawweight contenders’ bout.

Read on for our complete breakdown on Marina Rodriguez and his opponent Mackenzie Dern. They will head-line the UFC in Vegas 39 fight card with the winner taking a step closer towards title contention.

Continue reading for the updated UFC odds, main event preview, and free UFC in Vegas 39 betting picks.

Marina Rodriguez vs. Mackenzie Dern

UFC Women’s Strawweight Main Event Bout

Saturday, October 09, 2021 – 10:05 PM EDT at UFC Apex Center

Marina Rodriguez

34-year-old Marina Rodriguez doesn’t own a lifelong background in martial arts; in fact, her professional mixed martial arts career only began six years ago. However, when the cage door closes and her Muay Thai striking is unleashed, nobody would believe that she’s fighting behind a mere six years’ experience.

Since her vicious round-one stoppage on Dana Whites Contender Series in 2018, Rodriguez has made good use of her UFC contract. Her lone loss for the promotion came against former UFC champion Carla Esparza, and many critics still argue the decision to this date. One fighter left the octagon that night with beaten and bloody features, and it wasn’t the Rodriguez.

Significant victories over Tecia Torres, Amanda Ribas, and Michelle Waterson are now giving the Brazilian native an excellent case for championship contention, as one more notable victory could place her right into the title picture.

Marina Rodriguez Best Available Odds at +147 with BetOnline

Mackenzie Dern

Mackenzie Dern entered the UFC in 2018 with significant hype surrounding her name; as a former national and world Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu champion, she sure has delivered what was advertised. Four submissions accompany a 6-1 UFC record; transitioning her world-class BJJ skillset into the octagon has come easy.

Now riding a 4-fight win streak, Dern has progressed her strawweight ranking into a top-five position. And much like her opponent this weekend, Dern is just one more significant victory short of making severe claims for fighting for the championship.

Mackenzie Dern Best Available Odds at -165 with YouWager (visit our YouWager Review)

Spann Betting Odds and UFC Vegas 39 Best Bets

The Bookmaker Review’s current UFC odds favor the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu standout, and it’s looking as if the betting public is in agreement. I believe this weekend’s main event is a much closer contest than the odds suggest.

While Dern possesses an elite level of BJJ, Amanda Ribas highlighted the weaknesses in her martial arts skillset. Dern’s striking offense has a lot to be desired, and sure, she can focus her training camps on evolving her striking, but she’s not going to reach the level of Rodriguez overnight.

Rodriguez has shown the ability to scramble, sprawl takedowns, and keep her opponents at the end of her range. Dern will be relying on taking this fight to the ground, but I anticipate Rodriguez to own the more diverse MMA skillset.

Across the five rounds, if Dern is forced to keep this fight standing, I wouldn’t be surprised if Rodriguez forced a striking output so relentless that the referee is obliged to step in.   

As I believe the available odds aren’t a good representation of Rodriguez’s ability, I’m siding with the Brazilian to take an upset this Saturday evening.

UFC Pick: Marina Rodriguez to win at +147 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Marina Rodriguez to win +147
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UFC in Vegas 39 MAIN CARD Lineup and Betting Odds

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.