MLB Pick: Twins ML (+114) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have a normal 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Friday with all MLB teams in action. After going 9-4-1 in our last 14 plays, we return with three plays that we feel hold great betting value at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These plays and the latest MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Friday comes in the Emerald City, where our model favors a side when the Twins visit the Mariners.
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Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, June 28, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at T-Mobile Park
While we understand Logan Gilbert of the Mariners being a moderate favorite at home Friday, we see a nice upside in Bailey Ober of the Twins and are thus betting on Minnesota as an underdog.
Positive Regression in Order
Ober comes in at 7-4 with a rather lofty 4.50 ERA. Some may say that makes his record undeserved, but it is really the ERA that is inflated as his xFIP is a better 3.92. And his positive regression may already be in progress after tossing a complete game last time out allowing two runs on only four hits with 10 strikeouts. That came on the heels of allowing one run on six hits with eight strikeouts in 6.1 innings in his prior start.
We expect further improvement from Bailey with his xFIP still noticeably lower than the ERA. After all, this is a pitcher with a good K/BB ratio of 9.11/2.20 per nine innings while generating a 13.1% swinging-strike rate. Moreover, he has raised his soft-contact rate nearly 5% since last year, all the way up to 20.1% from 15.2%.
Good But Facing Hot Offense
Now, we do like Gilbert also as he has an excellent 2.67 ERA and good 3.40 xFIP. However, given Ober’s raging form in his last two starts and his metrics suggesting further regression, we do not think there is as much separation between these hurlers as their ERAs may indicate. And it is Gilbert that has the considerably lower soft-contact rate allowed at 14.6%.
That becomes relevant against a hot Minnesota offense that has keyed the Twins’ rise to second place in the AL Central at 45-36 after a slow start to the season. The Twins own a solid wRC+ against right-handed pitchers of 108 overall, but they are fourth in the majors against them during the month of June at a blistering 131!
The Pick
As good as Gilbert has been, Ober is starting to peak with more positive regression in the forecast, and he has a much hotter offense supporting him. That has us backing the Twins to pull the upset in Seattle on Friday.
Predicted Score: Twins 4 – Mariners 3
MLB Pick: Twins ML (+114) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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