Top NBA Parlay Picks for March 30 (Archive)
Sportsbooks have released their odds for Wednesday’s NBA action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Charlotte vs. New York and Sacramento vs. Houston. For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread for both games. Feel free to parlay both bets at one of BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
Charlotte Hornets vs. New York Knicks
Wednesday, March 30, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at Madison Square Garden
Slacking Knick Defense
Last year, the Knicks owned arguably one of the best defenses in the regular season. This year, their defensive statistics lag qualitatively far behind those which they accomplished last season. One respect in which the Knick defense struggles is in defending the perimeter.
The Knicks allow wide-open three-pointers with the fifth-highest frequency. Moreover, they allow open threes with the seventh-highest frequency. Plus, they rank 24th at limiting opposing three-pointers. These statistics indicate that the Knicks do a very bad job of running opponents off the three-point line and of contesting opposing three-point attempts.
Join Now: $1,000 BMR 12-Week All Sports Challenge
One may counter that they've been playing better most recently. But they've certainly benefitted from facing their last two opponents, Piston and Bull squads that rank 27th and 28th, respectively, in three-pointers attempted per game.
Hornet Three-Point Attack
Unlike the Pistons and Bulls whom New York just faced, Charlotte is built to take advantage of weak perimeter defenses. Contrary to those teams, the Hornets attempt the fifth-most threes per game. They generate propitious three-point opportunities in so many ways.
For example, they'll run a ball-screen and have the screener roll towards the basket in order to suck the defense away from the three-point line. Then, the ball-handler operating the ball-screen will have an open shot attempt.
Guard Play
One such ball-handler is point guard LaMelo Ball who, like fellow guard Terry Rozier, is a high-volume shooter converting 38.2 percent of his three-point attempts. Those two guys and several of their teammates will do serious damage to the vulnerable Knick perimeter defense.
Ball, in particular, is also a threat in transition with his combination of speed, handle, and court vision. The Hornets like more than most teams to run up and down the court. They will thrive in transition against a Knick defense that allows the second-most PPP (points per possession), 1.19, in transition.
Less Offense From New York
One may counter that the Knicks should be able to score plenty themselves because they recently played Charlotte and, in that NBA matchup, they lit up the scoreboard. But the Knicks' performance represented a significant anomaly. Normally mediocre at best from deep, they absolutely lost their mind from deep.
We can't expect a similar performance from a team ranking outside the top 10 in three-point percentage with a minimal edge in efficiency in their home games versus their road games that is more than made up for by Charlotte's superb shooting on the road.
The Knicks could have potentially done some damage against Charlotte's ball-screen defense.
Get Involved: BMR Community
But they miss their top pick-and-roll guy Kemba Walker to a season-ending injury. In terms of the frequency with which Walker was the ball-handler in New York's ball-screen game and in terms of the PPP that he earned, there is a strong objective basis for the claim that Walker is hard to replace.
The lack of productivity created by Walker's absence is compounded by the ongoing cold streak of the team's top three-point shooter Evan Fournier. New York will not bring the firepower tonight to make up for its defensive shortcomings especially against a Hornet team that is enjoying 4-0 SU and ATS runs on the road.
Scoring Prediction: Hornets 120 - Knicks 108
Sacramento Kings vs. Houston Rockets
Wednesday, March 30, 2022 - 08:00 PM EDT at Toyota Center
Know for your sports betting that it doesn't take much defense for a team to beat a Rocket squad whose defense is easily the league-worst. The Rockets allow almost two more points per game than any other team. They also repeatedly allow over 120 points.
Sacramento's defense itself isn't great. But it will look much better than usual tonight due to some matchup advantages.
The key is the perimeter. Defensively, Sacramento pays strong attention to the perimeter where it does as much as possible to contest opposing three-point attempts. As a result, the Kings rank ninth at limiting opposing open three-point attempts and seventh at limiting opposing wide-open three-point attempts.
Houston's Offensive Limitations
They will thrive against a Rocket offense that suffers a paucity of inside scoring talent, especially with the absences of Christian Wood and Dennis Schroder. The lack of inside scoring ability contributes to the fact that Houston attempts the fifth-most threes per game.
But the Rockets won't be comfortable from deep given Sacramento's attentive perimeter defense. Because the Rockets won't be comfortable either inside or outside the arc, they won't score nearly enough points to compete with the Kings.
Davion Mitchell
One may say that Sacramento is missing key offensive pieces, too. But the Kings still have adequate firepower because they are able to replace those pieces. A big part of Sacramento's offense is its ball-screen game. Here, normally, De'Aaron Fox is the guy. But he is injured.
However, Davion Mitchell is stepping up. He is contributing more minutes and, as his frequency and PPP in pick-and-roll ball-handler situations indicate, he is making those minutes count as well as Fox did. Impressively, Mitchell has always been known for his feisty on-ball defending.
But his increased minutes are allowing him to maximize his comfort in Sacramento's offense. With his on-ball prowess, his improved off-ball movement, his catch-and-shoot potential, and his aforementioned skillset in the ball-screen game, he is not letting his team miss Fox the way that Houston misses not only Wood but also others such as Schroder.
Scoring Prediction: Kings 123 - Rockets 105
The Verdict
Charlotte will, literally, race past New York, burying an impotent Knick squad with three-pointers and transition baskets.
Meanwhile, Sacramento with its surprising perimeter defense will limit an offensively challenged Rocket team whose already terrible defense will be exploited by the likes of Mitchell.
For the above reasons, parlay the Hornets ATS and Kings ATS for your best bets. Feel free to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
Parlay Picks
- Hornets -2 (-110)
- Kings -3 (-107)
NBA Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+269) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.