Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss Texas Bowl Picks and Predictions: Clash in Styles in Lone Star State (Archive)
NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss -3 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
NCAAF Pick: Over 69.5 (-110) at BetOnline
They say that styles make fights, and if that’s as true for bowl games as it is for boxing, then we should have an exciting matchup in the Texas Bowl this season.
The game matches up a pair of Power Five teams as Texas Tech, fourth place in the Big 12, takes its high-octane passing attack up against the powerful run game of the Ole Miss Rebels, the third-place team in the SEC West.
The Red Raiders won their last three games of the regular season to finish at 7-5, while Ole Miss lost its last three games to drop to 8-4 and land in a bowl whose prestige is likely far below what the Rebels were hoping for entering the season’s final month.
Still, Ole Miss is the right college football pick for this matchup, and here is why.
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Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Wednesday, December 28, 2022 – 09:00 PM EST at NRG Stadium
Starters and Enders
Texas Tech opened the season with three wins in its first four games, including dramatic overtime wins over Houston and Texas, both ranked at the time. Then the season took a downturn, with losses in four of the next five games, to Baylor, No. 25 Kansas State, No. 7 Oklahoma State, and No. 7 TCU, with all three ranked foes coming on the road.
The stretch run has been kind to the Red Raiders, who scored 43 to beat Kansas, 14 to beat Iowa State and 51 to top Oklahoma in an overtime shootout.
Of course, the end of the regular season seems like a long time ago, especially when looking at the Red Raiders’ roster. Texas Tech will be without its top pass rusher in Tyree Wilson, who finished second in the Big 12 in sacks. He suffered a season-ending injury in November and missed the last two games.
Then there’s the transfer portal. At least nine Red Raiders have hit the portal since the end of the regular season.
The defense has been particularly hard hit. Safety Reggie Pearson, who led the team in interceptions and was sixth in tackles, entered the portal, as did defensive lineman Philip Blidi (4.5 tackles for loss and two sacks), and several reserve linebackers all left.
Who Will Be There?
Coach Joey McGuire was undeterred, saying, “We’ve got all the guys that are on this roster that are ready to play Ole Miss. We feel good about these guys we have on defense."
On offense, Donovan Smith, who led the team in passing but has since lost his starting job, is transferring, as are a pair of backup offensive linemen.
But Tech is getting back a pair of contributors in running back SaRodorick Thompson and quarterback Behren Morton, who were both sidelined with ankle injuries. McGuire declared both of them “100 percent” for the bowl.
That gives the Red Raiders a pair of big-play quarterbacks, as former Oregon quarterback Tyler Shough has been leading the offense in Smith and Morton’s absence. All three Tech quarterbacks threw for 1,000 yards this year as the Red Raiders led the Big 12 in passing despite running through three different starters.
Miss-ing Out
Ole Miss reached as high as No. 7 in the top 25 after winning its seven games, including a win over then top 10 Kentucky.
A loss at LSU in late October knocked the Rebels from the unbeatens, and, after beating Texas A&M on the road, Ole Miss hasn’t won since before Halloween, losing to Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi State, with two of those losses coming at home.
The Rebels ranked in the top 10 in rushing yards and touchdowns and are led by the tandem of Quinshon Judkins, who led the SEC in both categories, setting a school single-season record for touchdowns, and Zach Evans, who was fifth in the SEC in rushing.
Present Despite Draft
Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin is known for being player friendly, and it paid off for the bowl. The Rebels are one of a very small number of teams that had no opt-outs for their bowl game. A total of 15 players plan to transfer, but nine of them are doing so after the bowl, remaining on the roster for the game.
The Picks
Ole Miss is the more intact team, which may be the most important thing at this point in the year.
Following the NCAAF odds, look for the Rebels to control the clock with its run game, but the Ole Miss offense is still explosive enough to put up points and win in a shootout to go over the point total established at Mississippi betting sites.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.