The postseason is finally here, and that means that every team is playing for something. Due to the complexities of the NCAA Tournament, every tournament-eligible team can make it if they win their conference.
Saint Mary’s is firmly in the field at this point, but they could boost their seeding with a deep run in the WCC Tournament. Santa Clara isn’t on the bubble, so they need a stellar run to somehow make it to the NCAA Tournament. They’ll be playing desperate on Monday.
The NCAAB odds favor the Gaels in this game. The line opened at 4, but it has since climbed to 5.5. With that movement, there is potential for value here. However, can Saint Mary’s send Santa Clara home by covering the spread?
Both teams have plenty on the line, and we’ll see on Monday night who comes ready to play. For now, let’s stick with keys for each team to cover the postseason spread and make an NCAAB pick for this game.
Monday, March 7, 2022 – 11:30 PM EST at Orleans Arena
Saint Mary’s has an elite defense, and that’s why they’ve played so well in the WCC this year. They force plenty of live-ball turnovers, and they know how to score on the other end. Forcing these turnovers is the easiest way for the Gaels to stop Santa Clara, and they’ll need to keep it up in this game.
While Saint Mary’s is good at forcing turnovers and contesting shots, they have a poor rebounding margin. That’s why it’s been crucial for them to win with turnovers. With the size in this game, the Gaels should be able to win on the glass. If they don’t, this game could get ugly by the second half.
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Saint Mary’s needs to be more aggressive. They barely shoot free throws, and that puts stress on the offensive side of the ball. If they can attack the lane and score at the line, they will have an easier path to scoring in the second half.
The Gaels are fundamentally sound, so we’ll see if they can avoid any insane mistakes that will turn this game around. If they play their brand of basketball, they’ll easily cover the spread.
Santa Clara likes to shoot with volume in the paint and with efficiency from three. This strategy has helped them win key games, but it can be unreliable when the perimeter shots don’t fall. At that point, defenses can pack the paint.
Because of that, the Broncos need to keep Saint Mary’s honest from the perimeter. They should draw up early plays to get quality looks. This will extend the defense, and it will be easier to win on the inside.
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An early start will also boost confidence for the underdog. Once you reach the postseason, too many games are won with momentum and timing. The right team gets hot at the perfect time, and a few bounces go their way to make it feel like destiny.
Santa Clara likes to play fast, but Saint Mary’s will try to slow things down. We’ll have to see who wins the tempo battle. As long as Santa Clara doesn’t lose control on fast breaks, they will have a solid chance of winning the tempo battle and hurrying up the opponent.
Now that we know what each team needs to do, what will actually happen?
Santa Clara has a great offense, but they’ll be desperate in this college basketball game. That could lead to elite performance, or they could crumble at the first sign of adversity. This is an elite offense playing an elite defense. It should be a fun game to watch, but Saint Mary’s has too much working in its favor to lose to the Broncos. At this point, it comes down to the spread.
I don’t like the value since the line moved, but I still believe Saint Mary’s will win this game. That adds little room for Santa Clara if they were to cover, and I find it more likely for the Gaels to win by a wide margin.
NCAAB Pick: Saint Mary’s -5 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.