Of the pre-Kentucky Derby races that you can earn points to qualify for the Run for the Roses, the Santa Anita Derby might have the best pre-race hype. This race has produced 19 Kentucky Derby champions and the winner receives 100 points toward racing at Churchill Downs, with 40, 20, and 10 points going to the second through fourth-place finishers.
What has every horse bettor’s attention is the anticipated duel between Messier and Forbidden Kingdom. Though most big stakes like this are towards the end of the race card, in the dozen races on Saturday at Santa Anita, this will be the sixth race to accommodate the television types to hit the 5:30 ET viewing window.
Saturday, April 9, 2022 – 05:30 EDT, Race 6
Just six horses are in this race which says something about the favorites. Messier (1-1 odds) drew the fourth post and enters off a dominating 15-length winner of the Robert B. Lewis (G3) on Feb. 6. According to morning observers, Messier’s workouts have been outstanding and he looks primed for a big outing. If you wondered if this horse is named after the Hall of Fame Mark Messier, that is correct and you get a carrot.
Aboard Messier for a second straight time is Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. In five career starts, this horse has three wins and two seconds.
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Yet, as good as Messier is, Forbidden Kingdom (6-5) is the real deal. The horse has won a trio of his five starts along with a place and a show finish. His front-running speedy style won him Grade 2 races, the San Vicente and the San Felipe. Three starts back, Forbidden Kingdom lost to Messier by 3 1/2 lengths but trainer Richard Mandella has spoken of his horse’s marked improvement and maturity and is excited to see what jockey Juan Hernandez can do.
For many, with those two running, the pace will be fast and that will be a low-paying exacta bet. If that’s true, we need a third racehorse for a trifecta wager. Top-rated sportsbooks are giving the nod to Taiba (4-1) to fill that role. Before completely assuming the first slots are taken, understand this. Messier and Forbidden Kingdom have the first and third-best Beyer speed ratings around two turns this season with their respective victories at 103 and 98 respectively. Who has the second-best speed number? Taiba.
Though this race already has a name, it could be the Tim Yakteen Stakes, as this trainer has three horses in the race besides Messier and Taiba is 20-1 long shot Armagnac. Yakteen’s third entrant appears overmatched against this level of competition, but he may use him to run with FK to weaken him for the stretch and have his other two horses run to the wire.
Happy Jack is listed at 20-1 and most recently was third to Forbidden Kingdom in the San Felipe. Rounding out the field is Win the Day (20-1).
Not that it probably matters to trainer Richard Mandella, but Forbidden Kingdom already has qualified for the Kentucky Derby with the 50 points he earned in the San Felipe. Because Messier and for that matter, Taiba, were previously trained by Bob Baffert, they were ineligible for points, which necessitated the change in trainers. Messier has to finish 1st or 2nd to make the Kentucky Derby field, as does Taiba.
This race appears chalk-laden and favored Messier looks like a beast to hold off Forbidden Kingdom. Though it seems silly to call 4-1 odds a longshot, given the strength of the favorites, that is accurate and we’ll slide in Taiba. And, don’t forget to visit Bookmakers Review for all of your betting information.
Horse Racing Pick: Winner – #4 Messier
Horse Racing Pick: Long Shot – #6 Taiba
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.