The A-10 is always worth watching, but no one ever really pulls away in the conference. Every year, someone new steps up and takes over to earn the automatic qualifier bid for the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Unless Dayton goes for a run but still loses the conference tournament, this will certainly be a one-bid conference this year.
Friday, February 25, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Robins Center
For teams like Richmond and Saint Louis, all of their hopes of making the NCAA Tournament involve going on a Cinderella run in the conference tournament. That is unlikely, but the best way to do so is to gain momentum at the end of the regular season.
That adds importance to this seemingly meaningless conference matchup at the end of February. Conference tournament seeding will go a long way, and each team needs to build some confidence before the postseason begins.
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Richmond hasn’t lived up to the expectation this year, but they are still favored to win this game. Can the Spiders cover the spread? NCAAB odds favor Richmond by 3 points, but is that a fair spread? Here are keys for each team and a pick.
First and foremost, Richmond needs to work on its defense in this game. They are good at staying out of foul trouble, but the rest of their defensive statistics are poor. They allow high percentages, and they don’t block enough shots. They have a negative rebound margin, and the only true way they consistently win is by forcing turnovers. This can work, but it’s not a sustainable plan.
In this game, they’ll need to force those steals. They’ll also need to do a better job at limiting second-chance opportunities. Even if they have to slow down on transition to ensure that they box out and secure a rebound, they’ll be better off.
Richmond has been a bad bet all year, and it’s because they lack consistency. They’ll be playing at home, but that might not be enough against a fundamentally sound opponent with something to prove. They’ll need to win the rebounding battle, avoid mental mistakes and stay consistent with shot selection. These may sound like simple tasks, but they’ve limited Richmond’s success this year.
Saint Louis has a better defense, which is good news for them in this game. A solid defense travels better than a quality offense, so they should be able to slow things down and keep this game low-scoring.
However, they need to avoid fouling. They foul nearly 19 times a game in conference play, and that number could rise on the road. If their stars get into foul trouble, they won’t be able to pull away in the final moments.
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Saint Louis likes to be aggressive, and that’s their best shot of winning this game. However, they need to be efficient with their risks. They can’t just go for every steal, because they are more likely to have fouls in a road game.
Look for them to run their offense through Gibson Jimerson. If he can stay efficient on offense, the team will find a rhythm in a hostile environment. He doesn’t face all the pressure, but he can certainly be a catalyst for Saint Louis in this game.
This should be a fun game, but who will cover the spread? It’s time to make a college basketball pick.
I like Saint Louis to cover the spread at 3 points. They have what it takes to succeed on the road, and they should be able to win the rebounding game. Fouls are always going to be a concern, but they also have a physical advantage that will help them if they can stay on the court.
Saint Louis should be able to dictate the pace in this game, and that will keep this one close until the final minutes. After that, it’s just about making clutch plays when the game is on the line. I like Jimerson to make those plays, and I like Saint Louis to at least cover this spread. They may even win outright, but let’s go with the cover for now.
NCAAB Pick: Saint Louis +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.