Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB Opening Day Picks and Odds Breakdown (Archive)
Despite a delayed start, the 2022 MLB season is underway for an entire 162-game season. The Boston Red Sox will visit the New York Yankees in an exciting rivalry game to get things going.
The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will have to wait until Friday to play their first game of the season. Will the wait have an effect on the pitchers like Gerrit Cole and Nathan Eovaldi? Below, I’ll break down the MLB odds and share a winning Opening Day pick!
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Friday, April 08, 2022 – 01:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
The Yankees were expected to play on Thursday and be the first game of the season, however, due to inclement weather, this game has been pushed back to Friday at 01:05 PM EDT. Only 14 teams will play on Thursday. If your team isn’t playing on Thursday, they’re playing on Friday!
Anyway, the Yankees will start Gerrit Cole on the bump. In his last two seasons, he’s thrown a 3.06 xFIP with 34.4% strikeouts and just 5.9% walks. Cole has been streaky throughout his career but is currently the favorite to win the AL Cy Young this season.
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Cole is only inducing 40.5% ground balls in the last two seasons and giving up 36.5% hard contact. These aren’t exactly ace numbers. He’s mainly struggled against left-handed batters, allowing a wOBA of .292 and an ISO of .221 in 464 plate appearances against lefties. Still, against those lefties, Cole is able to strike out 37.3% of batters and walk just 7.1% of batters.
Righties have a .260 wOBA and a .132 ISO with 32.1% strikeouts and 5% walks in their last 580 plate appearances against Cole. It’s safe to say that righties have a difficult time against Cole but lefties have a chance to surprise a bit.
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Opening Day Lineups
The Red Sox lineup isn’t built for right-handed pitchers. The opening day lineup is projected to have just three lefties, including lethal hitters like Xander Bogaerts and Alex Verdugo. But overall, the Red Sox have an ISO of .214 against righties in their last two seasons as a projected lineup and a wOBA of .345.
Boston won’t be hitting many ground balls and could hit some solid line drives with the top of the order. Also, don’t forget, the Red Sox added Trevor Story to the lineup. He was the big signing.
On the other hand, Nathan Eovaldi will take the hill for the Red Sox. In his last two seasons, he’s allowing a 3.55 xFIP with 25.6% strikeouts and 4.7% walks. He’s getting more ground balls than Cole but is allowing 23% line drive contact along with 35.3% hard contact.
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Eovaldi is sensational against lefties, holding his last 459 plate appearances to a .269 wOBA and a .149 ISO. The last 528 righties are hitting a .324 wOBA and ISO of .165. That’s where Eovaldi struggles a bit. However, he’s been able to limit walks to under 5% on both sides and earns nearly 25% strikeouts on both sides too.
The lineup for the Yankees really isn’t that different from last year. The Yankees have Josh Donaldson leading and playing third base and will have Anthony Rizzo, Aaron Hicks, and Kyle Higashioka starting. The team’s average ISO through the last two years against righties is just .204 with a .336 wOBA. Ground balls will be low but line drives are at about 20% against righties.
Prediction
Because this MLB game was delayed until Friday, the game is currently off the board. However, the Yankees were -140 with the Red Sox at +120 when the game was up. I’m going to assume things will stand pat once this game is added again.
You’d have to imagine Cole having a big outing. He’s only facing three lefties in the entire lineup and is earning nearly 35% strikeouts in two years combined. Lefties can get ahold of his pitches but overall, he still dominates lefties when it comes to swings and misses.
So, for my MLB picks, give me the Yankees in a low-scoring game at Yankee Stadium on Friday.
MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-148) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.