The Boston Red Sox may be the favorites, but the Tampa Bay Rays can beat Boston and the MLB odds this Wednesday at The Trop.
Wednesday, September 01, 2021 – 07:10 PM EDT at Tropicana Field
It isn’t too often we get handed a must-bet game for our regular-season MLB picks. But here we are with the Tampa Bay Rays priced at +132 at Heritage Sports for Wednesday’s matchup with the visiting Boston Red Sox. Don’t the sportsbooks know that Tampa Bay are by far the better team of the two? And that they carried an eight-game winning streak into Tuesday’s action, driving their record to 83-48 and 19.67 betting units in profit? Of course the sportsbooks know that.
They’re just reacting to the betting market, which generally leans too heavily towards the Red Sox (75-58, plus-5.20 units) and ignores the Rays.
They’re also taking into consideration the starting pitchers, and in this case, Boston have the advantage with Chris Sale (3.75 FIP) taking the hill. Or do they? Maybe rookie Chris Rasmussen (3.26 FIP) is the one people should be watching this Wednesday night.
Rasmussen has certainly exceeded expectations since the Milwaukee Brewers took him in the sixth round of the 2018 MLB Draft. That was one year after the Rays drafted Rasmussen 31st overall; he stayed at Oregon State instead, but eventually needed Tommy John surgery (his second), and didn’t end up making his big-league debut until 2020.
The Rays were quick to snap up their former employee, acquiring him in a trade with Milwaukee this past May. Since then, Rasmussen has pitched just 35 innings for Tampa, mostly out of the bullpen, but he’s also made three consecutive spot starts, and the Rays won all three – including an 8-1 victory over Boston on August 12 as +107 road dogs. Maybe he’s the real deal, small sample size notwithstanding.
Speaking of small sample sizes, Sale (3.75 FIP) has also won all three of his starts since coming off the injured list and making his season debut – although his 2.35 ERA has been helped considerably by having every single baserunner stranded during those 15.1 innings. And those three victories were over the Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers and Minnesota Twins, each dead last in their respective American League divisions. Big whoop.
Anyway, FiveThirtyEight are giving Sale the benefit of the doubt, giving him a 35-point Elo advantage in their projections for Wednesday’s contest. But that still leaves Tampa Bay winning 56 percent of the time, or –127 when you run it through the sanguine BMR Odds Converter.
Getting them at +132 on the MLB odds board is an old-school handicapper’s dream come true; it’s the deluxe package of the small-market Rays versus the big-market Red Sox, with some home dog value thrown in for good measure. And we haven’t even touched on the upside Rasmussen brings to the mound. Bet accordingly, and enjoy the game.
MLB Pick: Rays +132 at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.