Ravens vs. Browns NFL Week 15 Picks and Prediction: A Close Outcome in Division Battle (Archive)
NFL Pick: Browns ML (-145) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
It is a divisional battle in the middle game of NFL Network’s trio of Saturday games for Week 15. Baltimore remains tied with Cincinnati atop the AFC North while Cleveland will yet again miss the postseason.
Check out the betting odds as we analyze this contest and try to offer more winning NFL picks.
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Saturday, December 17, 2022 – 04:30 PM EST at FirstEnergy Stadium
What to Expect From the Ravens
After being the second-best rushing team in the NFL most of the season, in the last three games, Baltimore has dropped a spot to No. 3 not getting the production out of the offensive line or running backs. Though the Ravens were still getting over 100 yards, that was roughly just 70 percent of their season average.
This past week running back J.K. Dobbins returned against Pittsburgh and he rushed for 120 of Baltimore’s 215 yards which helped cover up for the quarterback situation with Lamar Jackson out.
That is extremely important because with Jackson expected to be out at least one more game, Huntley will likely start the week in concussion protocol, which leaves third-stringer Anthony Brown to run the show.
Right now it looks like coach John Harbaugh and his team will have to run the ball, throw short safe passes, and hope his defense can limit points.
What to Expect From the Browns
For Cleveland, another lost season at 5-8. The Browns have been waiting for Deshaun Watson to return and while a certain amount of rust was expected after not playing for essentially two seasons, one touchdown drive in eight quarters was not supposed to be part of the equation.
Watson has not been accurate, which is partly his fault, and not having wide receivers that are getting open, that has happened frequently this season.
That is why at least for now it makes more sense for the Browns to rely on their very good offensive line and Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to set the tone offensively.
You watch the Browns’ defense and they have individual talent and guys who can make plays. The conundrum is consistency and attention to detail. For example, they have an opponent 3rd and 8 and the slot corner or another defensive back will play 10 yards off the opposing receiver and give up an easy “pitch and catch” first down. These mistakes have occurred all year.
Who Covers the Spread?
With the Baltimore quarterback situation unsettled, Cleveland opened up as a three-point home favorite. Monday they were down to -2.5.
The key for the Ravens to score is having a game plan that can expose the Browns' defense. The film study and familiarity with Cleveland should reveal the best way to attack them. That could be in the B-gaps (between guard and tackle), then fake that play to suck them in and pop the back outside the tackle. Baltimore had 160 yards rushing in the last matchup in Week 7, but that was at home and with Jackson.
For Cleveland, establish Chubb inside and outside on early downs which would help Watson in play-action passes. The entire Browns receiving core has to work harder to get open to help their new QB and if Cleveland can grab a touchdown or better lead they’ll make it tough on the Birds for the comeback.
It is hard to trust either QB situation, but this will be Watson’s first home game with his new team and against the division rival, which will work to Cleveland's benefit with Baltimore 2-9 ATS after out-rushing the opponent by 75 or more yards in the last game.
What Is the Right Side for Totals?
The total was released at 42 and by Monday morning that had slid all the way to 39.5.
That is understandable with the Ravens 10-2 under in road games after two straight wins by six or fewer points and the Brownies 35-16 under as a home favorite of three points or lower.
Don't forget to check out the Ohio betting sites if you're located in the Buckeye State.
Score Prediction: Browns 20 - Ravens 17
NFL Pick: Under 39.5 (-110) at BetOnline
What Prop Bets Appear Safe?
With the total this low, focusing on the very best candidates for props makes the most sense against the NFL odds.
Of course, Chubb to score would be one such player with a dozen TDs this season. Amari Cooper could be a play, but because we have not seen Watson and Cooper have good chemistry, it’s best to pass.
We like how Dobbins performed last Sunday and if Cleveland has its usual breakdowns, expect the former Ohio State back to score running or catching.
NFL Pick: Chubb Any Time Touchdown at BetOnline
NFL Pick: Dobbins Any Time Touchdown at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.