Rangers vs. Blue Jays MLB Best Bet: Toronto to Fly Past Texas
-
LT Profits
- July 28, 2024
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We are now 12-6 in our last 18 plays entering Sunday’s MLB betting matchups, including a +144 winner on Friday at the top-rated sportsbooks. We are back today with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a side north of the border in the Rangers vs. Blue Jays matchup Sunday.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Sunday, July 28, 2024 – 01:37 PM ET at Rogers Centre
In a battle of two disappointing teams this season, we are backing Jose Berrios and the Blue Jays at home hosting Jon Gray and the Rangers on Sunday.
Better at Home
The Blue Jays are in last place in the AL East at 48-56 after having some high hopes entering the season, and Berrios has not met expectations either at 8-8 with a 4.08 ERA and 4.60 xFIP. However, what Berrios has continued to do is pitch much better at home in Rogers Centre, continuing his pattern since his first full season with Toronto in 2022.
That first year with the Blue Jays, Jose had only a 4.24 ERA here, but that was still better than his 6.36 ERA on the road. He was much better overall last year, but his ERA was still better at home at 3.30 against 3.97 on the road. This season, the variance has been more extreme with his ERA a nice 3.18 in Toronto and 4.99 away from home.
Berrios has made 10 home starts this year and allowed three runs or less in eight of them.
Velocity and Strikeouts Down
The Rangers are having a tough time defending their World Championship as they remain below .500 at 51-54. Granted, Gray has managed to go 5-4 with a 3.73 ERA, but he has some underlying signals that suggest that ERA is better than it should be, starting with his 4.09 xFIP.
Jon is now 32 years old, and he has seen a dip in his velocity to 94.9 MPH from 95.7 MPH last year, with his overall Stuff+ only at 83, a humongous dip from 97 last season. That reduced velocity and “stuff” has resulted in a reduced strikeout rate of 7.47/9 compared to 8.12/9 last year and 9.47/9 two years ago.
Furthermore, Gray has the worst soft/hard contact ratio of his career right now at an abysmal 13.9% / 36.7%.
The Pick
So, while both starting pitchers have had issues, at least Berrios has continued to pitch well at home. That has us betting the Blue Jays at a cheap price in Toronto.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 6 – Rangers 4
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (-105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
