Rams vs. Bengals Super Bowl LVI Best Point Total Pick (Archive)
Top Sportsbooks have released their NFL odds for the upcoming Super Bowl between the Rams and Bengals. There are a lot of narratives to sift through that the sports media world is hammering into people’s heads. So much discussion has been devoted to each team’s offensive line and each team’s pass rush. Also, a lot of hype is surrounding the top wide receivers in this game.
While some of the discussions you’ve been hearing may not seem to make clear whether you should bet the over or the under, I will clear some things up. For reasons that I will explain, you should play the total for this game.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, February 13, 2022 – 06:30 PM EST at SoFi Stadium
Cincinnati's Defensive Strength
The best feature of Cincinnati's defense is arguably the pass-rushing tandem formed by defensive ends Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard. Their presence can disrupt an opposing offense's game plan.
Conversely, their inactivity can have a hugely detrimental effect on the Bengals defense. In games where the Bengals allowed a very high scoring output, one of Hubbard or Hendrickson failed to get a sack and neither player made a strong impact.
When they conceded 34 points to the Chiefs, 41 to the Chargers, and 34 to the Jets, Hubbard failed to get a sack and Hendrickson did not get more than one. The number of points that Cincinnati surrenders thus largely hinges on the success of its pass rush.
Ram Pass Protection
Given the fact that Cincinnati's most dangerous pass-rushers are defensive ends -- both Hubbard and Hendrickson easily lead the team in sacks in this postseason -- L.A.'s success in pass protection will largely depend on tackles Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein.
Both players have been superb in this postseason when their quarterback dropped back to pass. Havenstein's track record, as substantiated by his PFF grades, is particularly impressive given the extent to which he's had to deal with J.J. Watt, Shaquil Barrett, and Nick Bosa.
Led by Bosa, that is a dangerous group of defensive ends that are now victims on Havenstein's most recent resume. While one may want to praise Cincinnati's defensive linemen, the well-tested aspect of L.A.'s pass-protection should inspire confidence in Matt Stafford's ability to stay upright. Stafford benefits from having an offensive line that ranks sixth in sack rate allowed.
Matt Stafford Turnaround
Towards the end of the regular season, it seemed to be the case that, even when Stafford was staying upright, he was not reliable. The fact that he was winless in the postseason was always a worthless observation given the fact that he played for Detroit and was not surrounded by as much talent as he is now.
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But particularly the number of interceptions that he threw in the last several weeks of the regular season had to inspire alarm. Stafford, however, has upped his play in the postseason, throwing six touchdowns to one interception.
Ram Wide Receivers
L.A. arguably has the best offensive player in the game in wide receiver Cooper Kupp. Kupp has been phenomenal, leading the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. While his individual play obviously merits praise, one should also note the creativity with which he is employed in the offense.
He'll often line up in a way that makes his movement harder to predict. For example, he'll often line up in a stacked formation where he'll either proceed forward on a deeper pass route or he'll hunker down, catch a short pass, and make use of his excellent running ability after the catch.
Chidobe Awuzie will likely see a lot of Kupp. The Bengals cornerback has likewise spent just about the entire time guarding the opponent's top wide receiver. While Awuzie has put up some impressive numbers, he will ultimately be defeated by the ways in which Kupp lines up.
Kupp has accrued the third-most snaps out of the slot this season. So, much of his amazing numbers derive from his lining up in the slot. Awuzie, however, has allowed 24 receptions out of the 30 times that he's been targeted in the slot.
Stafford still has plenty of others to target if Kupp should not be open. Most notably, Odell Beckham Jr.'s numbers have been improving lately. He just had his best game as a Ram, amassing nine receptions and 113 yards in his team's victory over San Francisco.
Nonetheless, it seems to be the case that Kupp finds himself so wide open in every game. Commentators always express their shock at how the defense could leave Kupp so open. But give credit to the superstar receiver for his consistent ability to get open for big plays no matter how badly the defense wants Stafford to target a different receiver.
Bengal Offense vs. Ram Defense
I think that the Rams will put up at least 30 points on the Bengals just like the Mike White-led Jets, Justin Herbert-led Chargers, and the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs accomplished. We won't need a lot of offense from the Bengals for the "over" to hit.
But I think the Bengals offense is in much better shape despite the constant reminders about the Rams' pass-rushing stats and the Bengals' pass-blocking stats. Like in his team's win over Kansas City, Burrow will get his running backs involved in the short passing game.
Most crucially, top wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase will still play a significant role. Video footage reveals Chase's comfort on shorter passing routes like the slant route. He's also smart about breaking off routes early and finding favorable spots in the defense.
His shorter routes also include simple screens where he shows off his explosiveness. Chase's traits as a runner allow him to rank fifth in yards after the catch. By executing these short routes that are harder especially for a cornerback playing with a cushion to defend against, he'll force L.A.'s top cover cornerback Jalen Ramsey to become more of a tackler than a defender of passes.
20 points is not a lot at all for the Bengal offense, but such a point total would help the game total fly over the posted total. For the above reasons, play the 'over' with your NFL Picks.
NFL Pick: Over 48.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
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