NFL Pick: 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers Over 8½ Wins (-155) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Pittsburgh Steelers turned around a 2-6 start to finish 9-8, a 19th-straight season without a losing record. Mike Tomlin’s bunch can move into sole possession of 2nd place all-time with a 20th such season this year.
But the easiest path to the playoffs is to win your division, and the Steelers are not favored to do that. In fact, the top-rated offshore sportsbooks still have Pittsburgh with the worst odds to win the AFC North, and their over/under win total is fittingly set to 8.5 wins.
The Steelers have performed well in the preseason, and even if that means little, there is still an opportunity to think this team can be better than it was last year even in a stacked AFC this 2023. They should at least be in line to finish higher than Cleveland, which is something the Steelers have done every season since 1990.
But is there a real threat to the Cincinnati Bengals or the Baltimore Ravens here for the division title?
The Changes That Matter
The Steelers are keeping the status quo with the coaching staff, meaning they are hoping for a lot of natural improvement this year. Getting a fresh slate of health for T.J. Watt is huge too. The Steelers also should feel very excited about what their draft class can do as rookies.
Natural Progression on Offense
To keep the coaching consistent, the Steelers retained Matt Canada as offensive coordinator, the most controversial decision of the year for the team. In 35 games as Pittsburgh’s OC, Canada’s offense has yet to have a game with 400 yards of offense. The Steelers have gone 25 straight games without scoring more than 30 points, the longest active streak in the NFL.
Ask people in Pittsburgh about the biggest problem with the offense, and they will likely tell you it is Canada. But he gets another shot to prove his worth, and he is going to rely on his players progressing as Kenny Pickett, Najee Harris, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth are all in their 2nd or 3rd seasons in the NFL.
Young Potential
This is a solid core of young talent, and that does not include Diontae Johnson, who should finally catch a touchdown this year after going the whole season without one in 2022. The Steelers had a league-low 2 touchdowns that came from outside the red zone in 2022, and they already have done better than that in 2 preseason games with the No. 1 offense led by Pickett going 3-for-3 at touchdown drives.
Preseason may not translate to real games, but it never hurts to see your players making good plays, and the Steelers have done that in August. This is why the potential is tempting, especially with the talent of Pickens, who could supplant Johnson as the new No. 1 wide receiver.
Concern over Canada is still warranted, but the talent can sometimes win out over the coaching. The Steelers have good talent.
Exciting Draft Haul
Not every draft class needs to have multiple Pro Bowlers to be a hit. Sometimes, you just need a handful of contributors who can do well for years to come for your team. The Steelers had one of the best-graded draft classes as it does look like one that will be helpful at a variety of positions.
The Steelers were able to mix value with need. They took left tackle Broderick Jones with the No. 14 pick to give Pickett his big blindside protector. He should prove to be an upgrade over Dan Moore.
Like Father…?
With the top pick in the 2nd round, the Steelers drafted Penn State corner Joey Porter Jr., the son of the former Pittsburgh standout. He was projected by many to be a 1st-round pick, so hopefully this works out well for him by going to his dad’s old stomping grounds at a position the Steelers have not always been strong at during Tomlin’s tenure.
Pittsburgh’s other 2nd-round pick was used on nose tackle Keeanu Benton, who should slide right in next to Cameron Heyward and be a Week 1 starter. The Steelers added tight end Darnell Washington from Georgia in the 3rd round, and he could play as either a 6th offensive lineman or leak out deceptively for some play-action passes. He will be a good backup to Pat Freiermuth, who is the receiving tight end.
Nick Herbig, a 4th-round linebacker, also has quickly popped this preseason and has a good chance to see playing time for a linebacker room that let go of Myles Jack, Devin Bush, and Robert Spillane.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
Pittsburgh’s potential for the playoffs and division title largely hinges on how much Pickett improves in Year 2. Even if he remains to be not as good as Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, the defense could close some of the gap there.
But we only are concerned with the over 8.5 wins, and frankly, it looks like one of the easiest over calls this year for your NFL picks. The Steelers are not strangers to multiple 8-8 finishes during this 19-year run of non-losing seasons, but with 17 games, that is just a chance to finish 9-8 as they did last year.
Not Daunting
The schedule does not come off as daunting as it did last year. The Steelers even open with 2 home games for the first time since 1997 and only the 4th time since 1970. After winning in Buffalo and Cincinnati in Week 1 the last 2 years, would it shock anyone if the Steelers made Brock Purdy look like Mr. Irrelevant with a Week 1 upset at home against the 49ers?
San Fran is one of the few elite teams the Steelers are projected to face this year. The division battles are obviously tough, but this team is more than capable of taking at least a 3-3 record there.
The Steelers could also see a rookie quarterback in Week 4 in Houston (C.J. Stroud). They get the Titans on a short week at home in Week 9. They also have very winnable games with the Cardinals (Week 13) and Colts (Week 15) , and they have reasonably winnable games with the Packers (Week 10) and Patriots (Week 14) at home.
Over or Under?
The defense is unlikely to get a cupcake schedule of quarterbacks down the stretch like last year, but if Burrow and Jackson are the best quarterbacks on the schedule, then you have to like Pittsburgh’s chances of a strong defensive season.
They know those quarterbacks well and have had some success against them. They do not have to face Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, or Aaron Rodgers.
The playoffs require more thought, but for over or under 8.5 wins, take the over for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers Over 8½ Wins (-155) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
On the Last Season of “The Steelers”: Tale of Two Seasons
Before last season, only one team in NFL history (1978 Chargers) started 2-6 and went on to win 9 games. But thanks to the 17-game season, we saw it happen 3 times last year with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Jaguars, and Lions all going from 2-6 to 9-8. They all won their 9th game in Week 18 too.
For Pittsburgh, it was a case of too many turnovers with green quarterbacks early in the season, and the defense led the way in low-scoring games after the bye once the schedule eased up. That is how a 2-6 start goes into a 7-2 finish.
Truth Being Told
If we are being honest, the Steelers’ non-losing season streak should have ended in 2022, but they got one of the biggest breaks of the season in Week 1 in Cincinnati when the emergency long snapper led to the Bengals bungling 2 short kicks that would have won the game.
But T.J. Watt left that game injured, and he would not return until after the bye. The Steelers greatly missed his presence and splash plays in low-scoring losses to the Patriots, Browns, and Dolphins.
But it was blowing a 10-point lead in the 4th quarter against Zach Wilson and the Jets that really stung. Tomlin made the decision at halftime to bench Mitch Trubisky for Kenny Pickett in his NFL debut, and the rookie sparked the offense with a pair of touchdown runs. But blowing that lead to a bad quarterback like Wilson at home was rough.
Pickett Debut
Pickett made his first start in Buffalo, which was about as hard as Tomlin could have asked of him. The Steelers were destroyed 38-3 and something similar happened when they lost 35-13 in Philadelphia, another Super Bowl-worthy team who did go on to win the NFC.
But the Steelers expertly made use of the bye week and were happy to welcome back Watt to the defense. Pickett had a lot of interceptions early, but the offense would turn the ball over just twice with him in the game the rest of the season. The running game picked up with Najee Harris, the offense was efficient on 3rd downs, and the defense took advantage of a bunch of bad quarterbacks to keep the score down.
Pickett showed some improvement in clutch situations after throwing some crucial interceptions in a 16-10 loss in Miami, which was also critical in keeping the Steelers out of the playoffs as the Dolphins made it with a 9-8 record and head-to-head win for the tiebreaker to get the No. 7 seed.
Rookie Potential
Against the Raiders and Ravens in back-to-back weeks, Pickett led a late game-winning touchdown drive. The only issue is it was the only touchdown the offense put on the scoreboard in either game.
Those opponents were also among the worst at holding leads last year. But he did show poise, and if he can manage games like this while taking advantage of a good defense, then the Steelers should be looking at bigger things in 2023.
Calculators
