Over 10.5(–118)
Phillies vs. Red Sox: Can We Fade Boston Yet? (Archive)
The Boston Red Sox are over-hyped, but do the Philadelphia Phillies belong in our MLB picks this Friday night at Fenway?
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox
Friday, July 09, 2021 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Are the Boston Red Sox (54-34, plus-16.47 betting units) really this good? They’re definitely outperforming expectations this year, which is why they’re one of the most profitable teams at the online sportsbooks. But some of this might be smoke and mirrors. The Red Sox are 17-9 in games decided by one run; their plus-61 run differential, which is third in the American League East behind the Toronto Blue Jays (plus-79) and the Tampa Bay Rays (plus-78) at press time, translates to a pythagorean won-loss record of 50-38.
At least they’re doing better than the Philadelphia Phillies (41-43, minus-1.71 units heading into Thursday’s action). Their record is one game better than their minus-21 run differential would suggest, and they’ll be up against it this Friday when they visit Fenway Park, after playing the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Thursday night. The Red Sox have the day off to prepare. Maybe Boston have to go in our MLB picks after all, now that they’ve opened as –129 home faves at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).
Balls In Play
As usual, let’s put a toe in the water by checking out the free projections at FiveThirtyEight. They’ve got Boston winning this game 57 percent of the time; run that through the greatest gambling calculator in the known universe, the BMR Odds Converter, and you get a fair moneyline (no vig) of –133. So much for the Red Sox. The Phillies are +121 on the MLB lines at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review) , so that’s no good, either.
We could always take the Over, of course. Its post-crackdown march to the pay window continues, going 49-43 (53.3 percent) in the seven days leading into Thursday’s action. And conveniently enough, the Red Sox have Garrett Richards (4.86 FIP) taking the mound on Friday. Richards has the Over at 9-6-2 this year, although we have to be somewhat concerned about his .343 BABIP – that’s a lot of BABIP. Some of those seeing-eye balls will eventually find leather.
Vinny Vegas
For the Phillies, it’ll be Vince Velasquez (4.89 FIP) gracing us with his appearance, and while he’s got the Under at 7-6 thus far, Velasquez has been helped along by a .266 BABIP, well below his career average of .311. The Over is also 5-2 in his last seven starts. There’s a good chance Boston will light Velasquez up; they rank ninth in the majors in hitting at 12.8 WAR, according to FanGraphs.
Then again, the Red Sox haven’t seen much of Velasquez – this is an interleague matchup – and Philly batters are a mediocre 17th overall at 9.2 WAR. And if that weren’t enough, this should be a very moist Boston evening, with Friday’s forecast calling for rain throughout the day, then tapering off before game time. Let’s ride that Over trend for now, but make it a small bet to account for these issues, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Over 10.5 (–118) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.