Joe Musgrove hasn’t had much luck versus the MLB odds, but he can lead the San Diego Padres to victory Friday over the L.A. Angels.
Friday, August 27, 2021 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
It’s not time to stick that fork in the San Diego Padres just yet. Far from it: At press time, San Diego (68-60, minus-14.28 betting units) sit just 1.5 games out of the last Wild Card spot in the National League, behind a Cincinnati Reds team that’s kind of m’eh. But the Padres are running out of time if they want to make the postseason.
A win this Friday over the sad-sack Los Angeles Angels (63-66, minus-5.71 units) would certainly help. And it will probably happen, given that the Angels have dropped 12 of their last 19, including back-to-back games versus the last-place Baltimore Orioles. The question is whether the Padres are worth betting on. The Angels still haven’t announced their starting pitcher as we go to press, so we don’t have any MLB odds yet from our top sportsbooks – but we do have San Diego checking in at –160 overseas, so let’s run with that for our preview. To the pickmobile~!
At least we know that Joe Musgrove (3.48 FIP) is due to start for San Diego. Musgrove is somehow on his third major league team despite pitching quite well since he broke in with the Houston Astros in 2016; the Padres picked him up from the Pittsburgh Pirates in the offseason, and despite Musgrove’s solid performance (and that of the bullpen behind him), they’re just 13-11 in his 24 starts thus far for a loss of 2.69 betting units.
That’s what happens when your batting order is mostly Fernando Tatis Jr (1.014 OPS) and a bunch of scrubs. But the Padres have also had some bad luck along the way. While they may be 68-60, their plus-75 run differential is more indicative of a 73-55 record. And again, San Diego’s bullpen isn’t really to blame; their 17-20 record in 1-run games and 6-6 in extra innings is pretty close to the .500 mark you’d expect. Mediocre hitting, and mediocre pitching aside from Musgrove, have been their downfall as much as bad timing.
It’s not official yet at press time, but it looks like Jose Quintana (4.44 FIP) is going to get another spot start for the Angels, and he must have been born under a bad sign, judging by that .400 BABIP he’s allowed this year. FiveThirtyEight haven’t penciled him into their projection yet, but they do have San Diego winning 56 percent of the time with a generic starter for L.A. That works out to –127 for a fair moneyline using the incredible BMR Odds Converter. Quintana has been... less than average this year, even with that unfortunate BABIP. So let’s kick him and the Angels while they’re down, put the Padres in our MLB picks for a small sum, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Padres ML (-195) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.