Odds to Win the 2023 AFC Before Championship Weekend: Can Surprise Favorite Bengals Finish the Job? (Archive)
NFL Pick: Bengals -2 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Cincinnati Bengals will travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs in an AFC Championship Game that is a rematch of last year’s contest, won by the Bengals on the road.
Surprisingly, current odds boards have Cincinnati favored to do it once again, thanks to an untimely injury to the Chiefs’ most important player.
Let’s take a closer look at the NFL odds to find the values we need to keep cashing our NFL picks!
Remember, fans from the Buckeye State or the Show Me State who are looking to make a wager on this game should be sure to check out our top-rated Ohio or Missouri betting sites.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, January 29, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
The Bengals are two-point favorites on the road to upset the Chiefs. There are a couple of reasons for that.
First, the Bengals have shown that they can match up well with Kansas City, going 3-0 against the Chiefs in games where quarterback Joe Burrow has played against Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes.
In addition to last year’s AFC title game, that streak includes a 27-24 Bengals win in Cincinnati in early December.
The Chiefs’ MVP quarterback is the other factor contributing to the line.
Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain in last Sunday’s game and, while it would take a serious setback to keep him out of the game, he will still be hobbled by the injury, a problem for a quarterback that relies on mobility as a weapon.
Favored Bengals
The Bengals weren’t all that far separated from the Chiefs in the regular season.
Cincinnati went 12-4, with one game, against the Bills, cancelled due to Buffalo’s Damar Hamlin’s cardiac issue on the field. That was just a game and a half behind Kansas City, who finished 14-3.
The Bengals entered the playoffs as the hottest team in the AFC, with an eight-game winning streak. Similarly, Kansas City won its last five regular season contests.
The Bengals then beat the Ravens at home in the Wild Card round and had a surprisingly dominant performance against the Buffalo Bills - everyone’s choice to challenge the Chiefs for AFC supremacy this week - winning 27-10 in snowy Buffalo in a game that was never really close.
Cincy's Balanced Offense is Tough
The Bengals got 242 passing yards and two touchdowns from Burrow, who was sacked just once by the Bills, and 105 yards on the ground from Joe Mixon in a balanced offensive attack.
It was even more impressive an offensive showing considering that Cincinnati was missing three starting offensive linemen.
The prospects of getting back two of them—left tackle Jonah Williams and right guard Alex Cappa—seem encouraging. Coach Zac Taylor said both were “improving every day.” Taylor pointed out that Williams has played through this type of injury before, and Cappa’s original return timetable had him possibly getting back for this game.
Even if one or both have a setback, the Chiefs’ pass rush pales in comparison to the Bills rush that Cincy had no trouble countering with quick releases and long runs last weekend.
Underdog Chiefs
The Chiefs’ chances in the game are essential a referendum on Mahomes’ ability to make plays while dealing with pain.
The possibility of Mahomes missing the game, which would give veteran Chad Henne the start, seems remote at best.
Will or Won't He Play?
Mahomes didn’t want to leave last Sunday’s game in the first place, arguing with coaches on the sideline. He finally agreed to go back to the locker room for treatment under the threat of being benched the rest of the day if he didn’t.
Mahomes eventually returned to the game and has declared that there is no prognosis or timetable - he’s playing.
Coach Andy Reid also indicated that Mahomes is a go, saying the quarterback was “doing ok” and pointing out that the sprain isn’t as bad as the one he suffered early in the 2019 season. That time, all he did was go out the next week and throw for 443 yards against the Raiders.
The Pick
While Mahomes will play, he’ll be facing a defense that is significantly more challenging than the 2019 Raiders.
Cincinnati kept Buffalo’s Josh Allen and all his offensive weapons in check on Sunday.
Even if Mahomes is throwing darts, his mobility will surely be impacted. And while the Chiefs don’t call for a large number of runs for him, his ability to move around in the pocket and avoid pressure helps him avoid the rush and make plays.
That will be tough against a Bengals defense that put the wraps on an equally mobile Allen.
NFL Pick: Bengals -2 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.