North Carolina vs. Baylor NCAA Tournament Second Round Picks for March 19 (Archive)
The Baylor Bears will be challenged on Saturday in the Round of 32. The Bears will have to take on a dangerous North Carolina Tar Heels team that just knocked off Marquette with ease, winning 95-63. Baylor’s win was also phenomenal. Don’t get me wrong. Baylor defeated Norfolk State, 85-49, but that was expected. North Carolina is favorite at top-rated sportsbooks.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Baylor Bears
Saturday, March 19, 2022 – 12:10 PM EDT at Dickies Arena
Tar Heels
The Tar Heels have been a pretty consistent offense this season. North Carolina is averaging a 52.2% effective field goal percentage while hitting 36.2% of threes and 50.8% of twos.
North Carolina rarely turns the ball over and grabs 30.7% of offensive rebounds, which is an area that Baylor will allow a surplus of. Baylor is giving up 28.8% of offensive rebounds on the defensive end and that’s truly the one area where Baylor has struggled this season.
Bears
The Bears have held opponents to 29.7% from deep and 49.1% from inside the arc on the year while also earning 22.9% turnovers and keeping fouls down.
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On the flip side, Baylor also dominates the offensive glass, but in this matchup that could change. Baylor is still shooting 34.8% from deep and 54% from inside the arc on the year, however, the Tar Heels are allowing just a 49.5% effective field goal percentage while holding teams to 21% offensive rebounds and giving out a very limited amount of fouls per game.
The Tar Heels aren’t a threat to earn turnovers but are able to limit second chances with how well they’ve played on the glass this season.
Despite losing to Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament’s semifinals, the Tar Heels have been red hot recently and even scored 94 points, on the road, against Duke, on Senior Night, and Coach Knight. The offense is really starting to come together at the perfect time and should give Baylor a run for its money at the top of the East Region.
Prediction
North Carolina has been very inconsistent this season. The Tar Heels have had some really intriguing games where they’ve dominated and other games like a game against Miami where the Tar Heels were just absolutely obliterated from the start.
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But overall, you have to expect North Carolina to come out in this game and give it their best shot. Baylor’s defense is much better outside of its woes on the defensive glass but the Bears’ offense is as good as it is because of how well they’ve performed on the offensive glass.
Once that’s taken away, North Carolina can hold Baylor and stick around. I’m not calling an upset but I do think North Carolina wins against the spread, making that my NCAAB pick. Offense will come and go. Effort won’t. If the Tar Heels dominate the glass, it’s their game to lose.
NCAAB Pick: North Carolina +5.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
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