North Carolina vs. UCLA NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Predictions (Archive)
Over the weekend, the North Carolina Tar Heels defeated the one-seeded Baylor Bears to move on into the Sweet 16. North Carolina was a better team than an eight-seed but due to so much inconsistency over the course of the season, the Tar Heels were slotted into the eight-spot.
The UCLA Bruins are still alive, and favored by the NCAAB odds, looking for their second straight Final Four appearance. To get there, the Bruins will first need to win their Sweet 16 matchup against North Carolina.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. UCLA Bruins
Friday, March 25, 2022 – 09:39 PM EDT at Wells Fargo Center
North Carolina went up as much as 25 but when big man Brady Manek was ejected for a questionable elbow, Baylor stormed back. North Carolina had no answers for Baylor’s pressure on the offensive end and it showed. The Tar Heels are one of the best teams in the nation but when things start to fall apart, this team starts to fall apart.
Now the Tar Heels will take on 4-seeded UCLA. The good news is that no team will be harder to defeat than the Baylor Bears. The bad news is that UCLA looks much better on paper. The UCLA Bruins are only turning the ball over 13.3% of the time and are currently shooting 35.3% from deep and 49.5% from inside the arc.
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UCLA isn’t going to dominate the offensive glass. Second chances won’t happen all that much. However, if UCLA continues to limit turnovers, shot attempts will be there for UCLA. North Carolina, on the other hand, is only earning 14.1% turnovers.
Plus, opponents are shooting 34.1% from deep. Although UCLA won’t pull the trigger from long range at a high rate, the Bruins should have success and knock down some open looks when they get them.
Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are knocking down 36.5% from deep and 50.9% from inside the arc. At the charity stripe, North Carolina is much better hitting 77% from the line. The Tar Heels on the offensive glass should be an interesting matchup for UCLA.
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North Carolina is bringing down 30.7% offensive rebounds but UCLA is holding teams to 24.9% offensive rebounds. You’d have to imagine UCLA holds UNC a little below its average in this game.
Also, the Bruins are allowing opponents to shoot just 32.1% from deep and 47.3% from inside the arc. With that, the expectation is that UCLA gets more stops on the defensive end.
Pick and Prediction
UCLA is more of a complete team. So far, the Bruins have been favorites in every game to start the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins have had less pressure on them throughout the tournament and already have experienced after last year’s Final Four run.
For my NCAAB pick, I’m sticking with UCLA for another round. Ultimately, UCLA has a favorable road to the Final Four for the second straight season. UCLA is the more consistent team and the team that won’t fold under pressure as North Carolina did.
Prediction Final Score: UCLA wins | 74-70
NCAAB Pick: UCLA -2.5 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
NCAAB Prop Pick: Brady Manek Over 2.5 Three-Point Shots (-130) at The Best Online Sportsbooks
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